The spotlight is once again on the Kurds in the Middle East.
The US and Israel launched a crippling air campaign on Saturday, devastating Iran‘s security forces across the country, particularly in the Kurdish areas bordering Iraq.
In recent days, Kurds inside Iran say even small outposts belonging to Iranian security forces have been flattened.
Could this ultimately pave the way for a cross-border operation by a coalition of Iranian Kurdish groups?
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For security reasons, none of the groups can reveal how many active members they have, but it is estimated that all the parties together have around 5,000-10,000 fighters.
This number does not include Iraqi-Kurdish fighters, who would not necessarily take part.
Iranian-Kurdish groups have extensive secret coordination cells inside the Kurdish region in Iran, and even in Tehran itself.
Potential to inspire uprising
Sources within the groups say that if Peshmerga fighters – security forces in the Kurdistan region – cross the border from northern Iraq into Iran, these networks and their supporters would join the fighters in securing the Kurdish region.
Some even believe that this could inspire an uprising by non-Kurdish Iranians.
“If the Peshmerga secure the Kurdish region, thousands of non-Kurdish Iranians will join them to finally free Iran,” one resident in Tehran said.
The Iraqi Kurds have been put in a difficult position. The US is a critical partner for the Kurdish authorities in Iraq, providing political as well as military support in terms of training, equipment and funding to the Iraqi Kurdish peshmerga forces.
But the Iraqi Kurdish authorities also have cordial diplomatic and commercial relations with Iran. Indeed, Kurdish officials, including President Nechirvan Barzani, say they will not allow their territory to be used to launch an attack on their neighbour.
Tehran said that it will not tolerate any incursion from Iraqi Kurdistan, and will target the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) if this happens.
Who are these Iranian Kurdish groups that could act as boots on the ground inside Iran?
Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (KDPI)
Established in 1945, KDPI is the oldest party, and has widespread support across the Kurdish area in Iran.
The party’s manifesto, which called for autonomy for Kurdistan and democracy for Iran, has championed an autonomous region for the Kurds inside a united Iran that is secular and democratic.
The KDPI and another leftist group, Komala, tried to negotiate with the regime in Tehran after 1979 to secure equal rights for the Kurds.
But the negotiation broke down, and KDPI and Komala launched an insurgency which lasted from 1980 to 1988, when the Kurdish groups were forced out of Iran into Iraqi Kurdistan, where they have been ever since.
The leader of the group, a professor of economics called Abdul Rahman Ghassemlou, was assassinated by Iranian agents posing as peace negotiators in Vienna in 1989.
In recent years, the IRGC has fired several barrages of ballistic missiles and suicide drones at the camps of the KDPI and other Kurdish opposition groups in Iraqi Kurdistan, killing dozens of fighters and their family members.
Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK)
PAK is a radical Kurdish party established in the early 1990s in Iraqi Kurdistan.
The founder, Saeed Yazdanpanah, was killed by Iranian intelligence operatives in the 1990s as part of an assassination campaign by the IRGC and Iran’s intelligence ministry in Iraq.
The group is a strong ally of the Iraqi Kurdistan’s ruling party, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), led by President Masoud Barzani.
The PAK Peshmerga have a reputation as fierce warriors, and were a part of the international coalition against Islamic State. They received training and weapons from the American-led coalition.
Komala Party (Komala)
The party, which operates under three branches, is a leftist-nationalist party established in 1979 in the aftermath of the Iranian revolution.
The group set a precedent in 1979 for recruiting thousands of young Kurdish women into its ranks, and fought bloody battles against the IRGC.
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Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK)
The PJAK was established in 2004 by Iranian Kurdish members of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and Kurdish students from inside Iran. The PKK had fought the Turkish state for over four decades.
At least 300 members of the group had just returned from Syria, where they fought against ISIS as part of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) affiliated with the US-led coalition.
The PJAK has operated small units deep inside the Kurdish areas for years, living in the rugged Kurdish mountains.
In 2011, PJAK fighters clashed with the special forces of the IRGC known as Saberin Units in the Qandil mountains straddling the Iran-Iraq border and inflicted heavy casualties on the IRGC.
The group is based in the border areas in Sulaymaniyah province in a network of sophisticated tunnels in the mountains, which has protected them from Iranian missiles and drones.
“It would take us less than three hours to take, for instance, Marivan city,” one official from PJAK said, referring to a border city in the Kurdish region.
“But we need to make sure that our people will be safe once we take the cities, and that means US air cover for Kurdish fighters.”
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Veteran fighters returning to region
Several hundred fighters said to be ready to cross the border are Iranian-Kurdish veterans of the war against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, who fought closely alongside US, British and French special forces.
And Kurdish sources say that hundreds of former Peshmerga fighters have returned from Europe, the UK and even North America to take part in any potential operation.
Thousands of light arms have been smuggled into the Kurdish areas in Iran in recent years, a Kurdish intelligence official noted.
When asked about whether the CIA and Mossad have provided weapons to the Kurds, the official added that they are not a proxy of any country, and are fighting for equal rights in Iran.
“The most important thing right now is close air support for the Peshmerga once they cross back into Iran,” they said.
Another official from one of the other Iranian-Kurdish groups said the short-range ballistic missiles that Iran still retains could rain fire on Kurdish areas if the US does not provide air support, making any mission into Iran suicidal without that agreement.
