The UK’s economic forecast has been downgraded for 2026 but will then improve – and unemployment will peak this year, the chancellor has revealed.
Giving her spring statement in the House of Commons, Rachel Reeves said gross domestic product (GDP) will now grow “slightly slower in 2026” than previously forecast but will increase more than was expected in 2027 and 2028.
2026: 1.1% (decreased from 1.4%)
2027: 1.6% (decreased from 1.5%)
2028: 1.6% (increased from 1.5%)
2029: 1.5% (unchanged)
2030: 1.5% (unchanged)
Ms Reeves also said unemployment is set to peak later this year, after already rising, but will fall from 2027-2030, ending at 4.1% lower than it was in 2024.
The chancellor, who had promised a low-key statement, said the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) forecast shows that Labour’s choices “are starting to pay off”.
She said GDP per capita is now set to grow “more than was expected” in the autumn budget, with growth of 5.6% by 2029.
“After accounting for inflation, people are forecast to be over £1,000 a year better off per year,” Ms Reeves said.
She acknowledged the situation in the Middle East but did not address the potential for that to disrupt the economy, and the forecasts have not taken that into account.
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Ms Reeves also revealed the OBR has forecast government borrowing will be £18 billion lower than its November prediction.
“We are set to borrow less than the G7 average,” she said.
2026: 4.3%
2027: 3.6%
2028: 2.9%
2029: 2.5%
2030: 1.8%
The forecast for net migration (the difference between immigration and emigration) was a lot lower than previously predicted, with the estimate of 295,000 being reduced to 235,000.
This means fewer tax receipts and spending, which could lead to lower GDP – however, it was not as much of a reduction as predicted earlier this year when it was expected to drop to 204,000.
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