People across the UK have been warned about the risk of “storm clustering” in the weeks ahead – after Storm Eowyn caused widespread disruption and damage.
Eowyn, the fifth named storm of the season, broke records last week with wind gusts reaching 114mph in Ireland and 100mph in Scotland.
It was closely followed by Storm Herminia, named by the Spanish meteorological department, which hampered recovery efforts.
Further disruption is possible in the weeks ahead, as the Met Office’s three-month summary outlook that is issued to contingency planners suggests a greater chance of windy or stormy weather compared to average, especially for February and March.
They also say the “increased chance of storms gives rise to greater risk of storm clustering”.
This refers to when several storms arrive over a short space of time, leading to increased impacts compared to the storms arriving in isolation.
A memorable example of storm clustering was when named storms Dudley, Eunice and Franklin arrived over just one week, back in February 2022.
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Strong winds from Franklin hampered clean-up operations following Eunice, which had left over a million homes without power and brought down trees across parts of England and Wales.
Studies have shown that most clustering events for the UK occur when the jet stream – a ribbon of fast-moving air high above the Earth’s surface – is powerful and straight.
Whether storm clustering happens or not, the forecast raises concerns the country could be set for a wild end to the storm season.
But the UK would need another seven named storms to match last year’s greatest number since the naming convention started back in 2015.
Read more:
As it happened: Storm Eowyn hammers UK
Ireland counts cost of Storm Eowyn
What is the weather expected to be like going into February?
There will be some respite in the weather from the middle of this week after Storm Eowyn brought disruption to flights, rail services and hospitals.
However, as the UK heads into February – the last month of the meteorological winter – long-range computer models suggest a return to unsettled conditions.
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Wet and windy weather is likely during the first part of the month, especially in the North and West.
The Met Office has said “stormy conditions, and impacts from high winds, are more likely than normal” when looking at February.
Southern parts should see higher pressure, with a chance of something more widely settled for the second half of the month.
Temperatures are likely to be above average.
