Oil has dropped roughly 14%, falling below $100 to $94 for a barrel of benchmark Brent crude.

Iran war latest: Trump declares ‘big day for world peace’

Not since the early days of the war has the price fallen so low. But it’s still far above pre-war levels – around $72 – as supply concerns remain.

It’s also significantly above the $69 a barrel price of 2025.

Particularly welcome for British households is the plummet in UK wholesale gas prices. They’ve dropped more than 18% to a low last seen on 2 March.

Though, as with oil, at 110 pence per unit of gas, it’s still way above the 78 pence pre-war level.

News from the Iranians of the reopening of the key oil and gas shipping lane, the Strait of Hormuz, is behind that price fall.

Not all plain sailing

Now, however, is the scramble to recommence production and to get vessels moving.

It will take time for powered-down oil and gas producers to reach pre-war output.

And the refineries, which have been without crude product to turn into things like aviation fuel, will take time to receive, produce and ship oil and gas derivatives.

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Supply woes won’t speedily be unwound. Farmers will likely face elevated fertiliser prices and petrol and diesel will be more expensive for weeks at least.

These issues may prevent oil and gas prices from plummeting.

Massive rises in Asia

This hasn’t stopped Asian stock markets from rallying.

Flagship stock indexes of major Asian economies have posted massive rises.

South Korea’s flagship stock index, the Kospi, is up nearly 7%.

Japan’s Nikkei is up a massive 5.5%.

Both were heavily reliant on Middle East imports and had suffered panic buying amid fears of shortages.

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The measure will protect students and graduates in England and Wales from the potential of inflation pressures due to the war in the Middle East.

The decision comes after mounting criticism of the student loan system, with many graduates seeing their debts grow to more than they ever borrowed due to high interest rates.

Interest on plan 2 loans is currently paid at a rate of between RPI and RPI plus 3%, depending on earnings. At the moment, this means the rate varies between 3.2% and 6.2%. Students on plan 3 loans also face an interest rate of RPI +3%, and this applies while they are studying and after they graduate.

From 1 September, interest on both plans will be capped at 6%.

With the prospect of the Iran war pushing up inflation, skills minister Jacqui Smith said: “We know that the conflict in the Middle East is causing anxiety at home, and while the risk of global shocks is beyond our control, protecting people here is not.

“Capping the maximum interest rate on plan 2 and plan 3 student loans will provide immediate protection for borrowers, supporting those who are most exposed within this already unfair system.”

What’s the difference between the loans?

Plan 2 student loans are those taken out for undergraduate courses and Postgraduate Certificates of Education (PGCE) since September 2012 in Wales and between September 2012 and July 2023 in England.

Plan 3 student loans cover postgraduate master’s or doctoral courses for borrowers in England and Wales.

Responding, Tom Allingham, student loans expert at Save the Student, said: “We’re pleased to see the government get ahead of a likely spike in RPI by capping the interest applied to Student Loans, giving students and graduates some clarity in these uncertain times.

“It’s also notable that, as things stand, the other two student loan plans operating in England (1 and 5) will continue to charge a much lower rate of interest.

“That a cap can be introduced, and plan 2 and 3 graduates will still be charged significantly more interest than those of different generations, surely highlights the system’s deeply embedded inequalities.

“Amid the ongoing student loan inquiry and growing cries from students and graduates for reform, we’re calling on the government to announce far more substantial changes that create a truly fair system.”

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Graham Nicoll, financial planner at NCL Wealth Partners, said the student loan system needs to be simplified.

“This is a helpful short-term safeguard that limits volatility and gives borrowers more certainty,” he said. “Although it does not go far enough as 6% is still relatively high, and many borrowers will continue to see their balances grow, both while they study and after graduating.

“This highlights a deeper issue in that the system is complex, opaque, and often feels punitive.”

Walker Smith, who had been with the supermarket for 17 years, was dismissed two days after getting into a brief struggle with the thief, who was trying to steal Easter eggs.

He told the Guardian he was reprimanded by his manager and apologised, but the issue was escalated, and he lost his job at the shop in Clapham, south London.

Posting next to an article on the story on LinkedIn, Lord Richard Walker, executive chairman of Iceland and the government’s cost-of-living champion, posted: “You’re welcome to a job with us. We even share the same name…”

It’s not known if Mr Smith has responded to the offer.

Lord Walker also suggested in an interview last week that security guards should carry truncheons and pepper spray to deal with the violence they encounter.

The Conservatives have urged Waitrose to reinstate Mr Smith, but the firm said in a statement he had broken rules designed to protect staff from a “serious danger to life”.

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“We refuse to put anyone’s life at risk and that’s why we have policies in place that are very clearly understood and must be strictly followed,” it said.

Shadow home secretary Chris Philp wrote to the company’s boss on Monday and said the sacking sent “entirely the wrong message” and “penalises those who act”.

Marks & Spencer has also called for tougher action on shoplifting – with some stores now forced to security tag items such as chocolate, butter and meat – and staff increasingly facing violence.

Retail director Thinus Keeve warned retail crime was getting “more brazen, more organised and more aggressive” in a letter criticising the government and London mayor Sadiq Khan.

M&S chief executive Stuart Machin also wrote to the home secretary following recent antisocial behaviour in Clapham that saw crowds of young people trying to storm shops.

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The Office for National Statistics said last year that more than half a million shoplifting offences had been recorded by police in England and Wales for the first time.

Countless more are believed to go unreported as retailers often say it’s not worth reporting due to perceived lack of action by police and weak punishments.

The Employment Rights Act 2025 is being gradually phased in during this year and next – but lots of the headline measures are kicking in now.

They are, as listed on the government website:

Statutory sick pay: More employees qualify, with no earnings threshold and no three-day waiting period.

Day-one family leave: Employees are entitled to paternity leave and unpaid parental leave from the first day in a new job – previously, it kicked in after 26 weeks.

Bereaved partner’s paternity leave: New right to time off following the death of a child’s mother or primary adopter, within the first year of the child’s life or adoption.

Collective redundancy protections: An increase to the protective award to employees if firms don’t meet their collective redundancy obligations.

Whistleblowing protections: Stronger protections for workers who report sexual harassment.

Simpler enforcement through the Fair Work Agency: A new body to uphold workers’ rights and support businesses with compliance.

Holiday pay records: Employers are required to keep adequate records to show they have complied with holiday pay and entitlement rules. These records need to be retained for six years from the date they were made.

Action plans: Employers with 250 or more employees are encouraged to publish the steps they are taking to reduce their gender pay gap and support employees experiencing menopause.

The sick pay change means more low-income and irregular hours workers will be eligible, as the minimum earnings requirement has been scrapped.

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Changes to unfair dismissal protections will be introduced on 1 January 2027.

Further changes will also be introduced across 2026 and 2027, including changes to trade union legislation and reforms to protect employees against harassment.

Here are six big tax changes that have now kicked in…

Making tax digital

Sole traders and landlords earning more than £50,000 from self-employment and property will have to use the Making Tax Digital system from 6 April.

The new system is a UK government initiative aimed at modernising the tax system by getting businesses and landlords to keep digital records and submit quarterly tax updates to HMRC using compatible software.

Under the changes, sole traders will be forced to file at least five updates to HMRC every year – four quarterly updates on their income and expenses and an end-of-year tax return.

If a self-employed person is also a landlord, that doubles the amount of financial updates needed to be filed, and doesn’t take into account VAT returns.

To start with, only qualifying people earning more than £50,000 will have to use the system. Those earning more than £30,000 – an estimated 970,000 people – will be required to use it from next April.

Free software options are available, and once income and expenses are recorded, the software generates a simple summary to send to HMRC.

Penalty points will be given for each late submission, with a £200 penalty only applied once four points are reached.

This means occasional slip-ups won’t result in immediate fines.

Inheritance tax

Changes to agricultural and business property reliefs for inheritance tax purposes have been rolled out.

A new cap of £2.5m before inheritance tax is due is in place for farmers.

For assets above this, a 50% tax relief will be applied.

The cap was originally proposed at £1m in last year’s autumn budget, but an announcement was made in late December to increase it to £2.5m after protests from farmers.

For everyone else, the inheritance tax threshold of £325,000, unchanged since 2009, has been extended until 2030.

Inheritance tax is due when you leave an estate valued above a certain threshold to your loved ones when you die.

There is no tax if your estate’s value is below the £325,000 threshold or you leave your estate to your spouse or civil partner, or an exempt charity or group.

The tax is charged at 40% on the part of the estate above the threshold.

For example, if someone’s estate is worth £400,000 when they die, £75,000 of it will be taxed at 40%, amounting to £30,000 total tax.

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Dividend tax

Dividend tax has to be paid on any income received from company shares that exceeds the £500 tax-free allowance.

It applies to payments from company profits, with rates based on your overall income tax band.

From this week, the rate has risen from 8.75% to 10.75% for basic rate taxpayers and 33.75% to 35.75% for higher rate taxpayers.

AJ Bell senior pensions and savings expert Charlene Young says the change means that basic and higher rate taxpayers face paying £390 more in tax on £20,000 worth of dividends than last tax year.

Venture Capital Trusts income tax relief cut

Upfront income tax relief for VCT investors has been cut from 30% to 20%.

VCTs are investment companies listed on the London Stock Exchange that invest in smaller, younger start-up firms believed to have big growth potential.

This change could mean up to £20,000 less in tax relief for an investor making use of their full £200,000 allowance (the maximum amount that is allowed to be invested in VCTs), according to Young.

“While the income tax relief for VCT investors will be slashed, the chancellor has also softened eligibility rules for companies, meaning more firms can apply for funding from the schemes to help them scale up,” she says.

Capital gains tax

The rate of capital gains tax that applies to business asset disposal relief and investors’ relief has risen from 14% to 18%.

This means entrepreneurs and investors will pay more tax on qualifying business sales.

CGT is a tax on the profit made when you sell, gift or dispose of an asset that has increased in value, such as shares, property or valuable personal possessions. You are taxed on the profit, not the total amount received.

You’ll pay:

24% on your gains from residential property;

32% on your gains from  carried interest  if you manage an investment fund;

24% on your gains from other chargeable assets.

For sole traders, business partners or those with shares in a company, there is the business asset disposal relief that reduces this tax bill.

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Working from home tax relief

People who work from home will no longer be able to claim tax relief for the extra household costs they’ve paid as a result.

Previously, you could claim tax relief if you had to work from home.

Only employer-reimbursed expenses will remain tax-free. These changes do not affect self-employed individuals.

The triple lock guarantee means it increases every April by whichever is highest out of inflation, wage growth or 2.5%.

Monday’s 4.8% rise – which is in line with average earnings growth – will take the full rate of the new state pension from £230.25 to £241.30 a week.

Meanwhile, the full basic state pension will go from £176.45 a week to £184.90.

The government said committing to the triple lock on pensions is helping to protect households against a cost of living squeeze.

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But some critics, including the Institute for Fiscal Studies, have argued that the triple lock should be scrapped – and “a better approach is needed”.

Last year, the thinktank had warned the generosity of this policy has a “substantial and growing impact on public finances”, especially as the population ages.

The IFS had written: “The OBR estimates that spending on the state pension will rise by around £80bn in today’s terms by the 2070s, and over half of this increase is projected to be due to the triple lock.

“But under a more volatile economic environment the triple lock could cost an extra 1.5% of national income – or £44bn in 2025 terms – on top of this.”

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Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden said: “I know global shocks, and the effects they have on our living costs, will be increasing anxiety for many households.

“This government will always protect our pensioners, and that’s why we are raising the full rate of the new state pension by up to £575 this coming year.”

Earlier this week, Reform UK joined other major British political parties in committing to keep the pension triple lock.

At a news conference on Thursday, its economics spokesperson Robert Jenrick said this would be achieved by cutting the benefits bill by billions of pounds.

It was last year, during near-record-high cocoa prices, that customers began noticing smaller packs and the phrase “chocolate flavour” bar, as the cocoa content dropped to such a level that manufacturers could no longer describe their products as chocolate.

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Toffee Crisp and Blue Riband bars became “chocolate flavour” in December, as they didn’t contain the minimum 20% cocoa solids and 20% milk solids required to be described as milk chocolate in the UK.

That followed McVitie’s Penguin and Club in October, while KitKat White and McVitie’s white digestives underwent the rebrand before 2025.

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What now for the ‘chocolate flavour’ bar?

No changes appear to be in the works.

Of the companies that replied to Sky News, none said they were making product or recipe changes.

“There are currently no plans to make further recipe or weight changes to our individual confectionery products,” Toffee Crisp, Blue Riband, Quality Street and KitKat maker Nestle told Sky News.

“In recent years, we have taken every possible step to minimise the impact of high cocoa prices and keep our products affordable.

While recent cocoa prices are encouraging, the market remains volatile. We are keeping a close eye on developments.”

The Penguin, Club and White Digestives maker, Pladis, said it had no changes planned.

Terry’s, Mars, which owns Celebrations, and Mondelez, which owns Cadbury, did not respond to Sky’s queries about the fall in cocoa prices and the changes they’d made.

What had shrunk?

In the past year, eagle-eyed shoppers spotted several products weighed less. Celebrations became 150 grams lighter from 2021 to 2025 while becoming more expensive.

So too did Cadbury’s Dairy Milk, shedding 20g in the four years, and Toblerone, which was found to be 20g lighter in September.

Terry’s Chocolate Orange shed 12g from 2021 to 2025 while increasing in price. Quality Street tubs went from 600g to 550g at Christmas.

Multipacks also appeared minus a bar or two.

A Freddo multipack went from having five bars to four, as did Cadbury Fudge bar packs. KitKat two-finger milk chocolate bars also shrank from 21 to 18 bars.

Change to come?

The cocoa drop comes too late for cheaper chocolate this Easter, though a price fall in some chocolate may be seen at Christmas, as wholesale cocoa, a key component of chocolate, dropped to a low last seen in August 2023.

“For the smaller chocolatiers… who have a higher cocoa percentage, then I think we will be able to reduce the price, particularly of those higher cocoa content products,” said Dominic Simler of UK manufacturer Playin Choc, when asked about the likelihood of a Christmas-time price drop.

“I think it is likely if these prices stay stable and sustained at this kind of level.”

While the price of cocoa has been falling since May last year, many suppliers will be tied to contracts that don’t reflect the recent lows.

As cocoa costs had been volatile, manufacturers locked in future contracts for clearer planning.

It will be mid-2026 before North Yorkshire makers Whitakers Chocolate will be buying for later this year and 2027, said Gemma Whitaker.

Ms Whitaker added that the knock-on effect of the war in the Middle East will push prices up.

That all means the price drops have come too late to pay less this Easter, as manufacturing and buying will be based on higher cocoa costs.

And that’s not all

Plus, the multinational producers tend to have a lower cocoa content, around 20%, versus a producer like Playin Choc, whose chocolate is about 40% cocoa.

That means they’re less exposed to cocoa price rises or falls

“If you’ve only got 14 or 20% cocoa in your product, like the big seven chocolate companies supplying supermarkets have, then actually, their biggest cost is not cocoa, by a long way. Their biggest cost is sugar, white sugar and milk, milk fat, essentially,” Mr Simler said.

“So for those guys, I don’t know what they’ll do.”

London sugar futures, a way of measuring wholesale sugar costs, however, are about 20% cheaper than this time last year after surpluses in India and expected higher production in Brazil.

Chocolate this Easter

This year, Easter egg prices are up 9% on 2025, according to industry data from market research provider Worldpanel.

A typical Easter egg costs £3.27 in 2026, it said.

Analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) said the average price of popular Easter chocolates has risen by two-thirds in three years, with some eggs more than doubling in price due to extreme weather driven by climate change.

What’s happened with cocoa?

Cocoa prices are more than 60% lower than a year ago, around $3,150 per tonne compared to $12,218 in April 2024, due to oversupply in the key growing areas of Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana.

Climate change had seriously damaged cocoa growing, which led prices to soar.

In response, producers such as Whitakers developed new products, such as coated ginger, Brazil nuts and a selection of fondants, that are less reliant on cocoa.

The Iran war effect

While cocoa prices have remained lower, producers are now grappling with higher transport costs and face costlier electricity and packaging bills.

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“Rising oil and gas prices have a knock-on effect across the entire supply chain, increasing the cost of production, packaging, and distribution,” said Ms Whitaker.

“In addition, many packaging materials used within the confectionery industry – including plastics, films and foils – are either directly derived from oil or require significant energy to produce. As a result, any disruption to global energy markets can lead to increased packaging costs.”

I’ve been fortunate to work under some amazing chefs… but my time in London alongside a chef called Hywel Jones was where I really learned my craft as an aspiring chef. His ability to get the best out of ingredients and his techniques helped me learn to achieve this, which gave me the platform to build on and has helped shape the chef I am today.

A cheap ingredient that a lot of people overlook is… offal. People often go for the prime expensive cuts, but offal is often very cheap. Tripe is something a lot of butchers give away for free, as no one wants it, but braised slowly in red wine, bacon and mushrooms, it is one of the most delicious things to eat.

The best store cupboard ingredients with the best flavour-for-money payoff are…a good range of seasonings and spices. They contain flavour enhancers and herbs that provide an instant savoury umami boost to meat, pasta and vegetables to enhance flavours at home.

My go-to cheap eat out… is a little dim sum bar called Nan Bei Chinese Dumplings in Grainger Market in Newcastle. They’re famous for their handmade dumplings and noodle soups – class for the price!

They might be prestigious, but Michelin stars have their downsides… Sometimes they can be a double-edged sword due to the intense pressures they exert on chefs, relationships, staff, business viability and guest expectations. I love the pressure – it makes us keep pushing for excellence and perfection. It also helps having a good team behind me.

Everyone should invest in a good kitchen blender… They’re perfect for a good range of things, from smoothies using all fruits to making pesto, salsa verde or your own mayonnaise, oils and soups.

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You can find great supermarket meat that stands up well… Aldi’s meat selection is actually very good for home cooking – the flavour and tenderness of their steak range is very good value. I also like the fish counter at some Morrison’s shops; they’re great for fresh fish rather than pre-packed varieties.

A great £10 meal needs to give a good yield and be both delicious and comforting… I’d make a classic beef stew using a braising cut, such as shin or brisket, with mashed potatoes. Here’s how:

The most underrated British ingredient is… Worcestershire sauce. It’s a powerhouse for flavour and versatility. While often relegated to cheese on toast, its complex blend of molasses, malt vinegar and anchovies acts as an instant umami booster for meats, fish, sauces or stews.

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The cost of living appears to be causing permanent shifts in how people dine out… Consumers are being more intentional and value-driven in their choices. Rather than simply cutting back temporarily, diners are adopting new behaviours and prioritising experiences that justify the cost, but eating out less is a result of this.

One major misconception diners have about restaurant pricing is… that if a dish is expensive, the restaurant must be making a big profit on it. In reality, higher prices often mean higher risk and thinner margins, not greed. Ingredient cost is only 30-35% of the menu price; the rest pays for rent, staff, utilities, insurance, equipment, breakage and waste. Labour is the killer cost: a dish that looks simple may actually require prep cooks, service staff and dishwashers behind the scenes. Premium ingredients are also volatile. Fish, beef, dairy and produce prices fluctuate weekly. Restaurants can’t constantly change menus to keep up.

It’s been harder to find good staff since COVID… Staffing has been affected ever since the pandemic, and we’ve seen fewer chefs willing to relocate to different areas to enhance their career, not helped by rising rental prices. I also feel a lot of young chefs of today don’t look at their workplace as an investment for their future.

Rising business rates are the biggest cost pressure that diners don’t see… I feel this is going to be the nail in the coffin for a lot of business owners already struggling in today’s climate. There are so many other pressures, like the huge rise in electricity and gas, which has risen almost 100% over the past few years. The 20% VAT tax on all sales, when most of what we are charged isn’t tax refundable, also really hurts our business. By contrast, in Europe, it sits at around 10% tax on all sales.