The government is planning a range of measures designed to restrict immigration to the UK, which will likely further reduce net migration – but without further details the impact is unclear.
Among the measures in the white paper are changes to the types and numbers of work visas issued to foreign workers, including scrapping social care visas altogether.
Announcing the policy proposals, the prime minister Sir Keir Starmer said he would get net migration “down by the end of this parliament”, but would not be drawn on a specific number or yearly targets.
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Net migration – the difference between the number of people arriving (immigration) and leaving (emigration) – was already on track to fall from unusually high levels seen since Brexit, when rules for non-EU migrants were relaxed, according to the Migration Observatory research institute at the University of Oxford.
It says Monday’s announcement is more of a continuation of rollbacks that began under the previous Conservative government, which combined with new measures just unveiled could ultimately leave the system looking more similar to pre-Brexit rules for non-EU citizens.
Georgina Sturge, data consultant at the Migration Observatory, said: “These measures look likely to bring net migration down further if they work as intended, although a lot will depend on precisely how the measures are implemented.”
The number of work visas, including in social care, had already significantly declined before Monday’s announcement. This is largely due to rule changes under the previous government preventing some workers bringing family members to the UK.
There were around 370,000 work visas issued in 2024, a 40% drop compared to 2023, when around 614,000 were issued – the highest number on record.
When these latest statistics were released, Sir Keir Starmer’s government was keen to take credit for overseeing a fall in immigration. But, in reality, most of the drop was driven by changes earlier in the year under Rishi Sunak’s government, which themselves were an attempt to undo large immigration rises during Boris Johnson’s leadership.
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Restricting staffing during shortage has care sector worried
Of the 278,000 visas issued to dependants of the main applicant in 2023, nearly three quarters of those were in the health and care worker category.
As rule changes came into effect in early 2024, limiting health and care dependants, both the number of main applicants as well as the number of dependants decreased by more than half, while visas for other workers remained fairly stable.
Still, there may be advantages to the announcement to entirely close the route, which has been plagued with issues including worker exploitation.
“In terms of numbers, a lot of that decrease has already happened. But what’s really important to consider here is that there have been significant issues with the care route beyond just the numbers,” Mihnea Cuibis, researcher at the Migration Observatory, told Sky News.
“We have had very numerous reports of exploitation of migrants and have seen the Home Office struggle to manage this route. So one advantage to the Home Office is that it will close down a route that has been problematic.”
It may also be positive for those care workers who have already emigrated to the UK, but found the job they came for was non-existent or not as advertised, he added. The care sector can continue to hire from this pool of workers until 2027.
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Recruitment issues in the care sector have persisted in spite of large levels of international recruitment. The latest data from industry body Skills for Care on the care workforce in England showed that recruitment had improved in recent years – though as this data is on a lag it does not show the impact of recent rule tightening from 2024 onwards.
In spite of an increased number of ‘filled posts’, the number of vacancies remains higher than in 2020, as demand for carers has continued to rise.
“For the care sector, of course, there’s continuing issues around recruitment, mostly because of problems with pay and conditions. And these restrictions that are introduced are not going to affect that,” Mr Cuibis explained.
The government has also hinted at exemptions for other sectors, including in construction, where international recruitment could contribute to growth targets.
Significant workforce shortages will need to be overcome if the government is to meet its housebuilding targets, with around 240,000 recruits needed across the sector by 2027, including 20,000 bricklayers, 20,000 ground workers, and 2,400 electricians, according to a recent report from the Home Builders Federation.
In 2024, only 11,000 construction worker visas were issued, hardly close to the number needed to fill workforce gaps. But again, this is an area where the government says it wants to see an increase in homegrown skills and training.
Mr Cuibis added that many questions around how the new system will operate remain unanswered, and that the “devil will be in the details”.
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