It’s hard not to view the motivating factor behind Vladimir Putin’s latest unilateral ceasefire in Ukraine as one of timing.
Starting today, the three-day truce coincides with Russia’s lavish celebrations to mark the 80th anniversary of victory over Nazi Germany.
The main event will be a huge military Victory Day parade on Red Square on Friday, where the Russian president will be welcoming more than two dozen world leaders, including China’s Xi Jinping.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has dismissed the ceasefire proposal as theatre, and a cynical ploy by Mr Putin to protect his parade, rather than human lives.
It’s certainly true that the Kremlin wants to put on a good show – not just for its guests but for the rest of the world.
The arrival of so many heads of state, including the leaders of Brazil, Egypt and Vietnam – is a major PR coup for Moscow, and a chance to show the West that its efforts to isolate Russia have failed.
Announcing the guestlist earlier this week, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov claimed it was “an indicator of Russia’s growing authority in the world”.
What US-Ukraine minerals deal means for Putin
US and Ukraine sign deal to establish investment fund
Is Trump just winging his foreign policy?
With that in mind, a Ukrainian attack on the parade would be seriously embarrassing for Mr Putin.
In theory it could happen – Kyiv hasn’t committed to the ceasefire, instead calling for a 30-day pause, and has said it can’t guarantee the safety of foreign dignitaries who are visiting Russia – but I think it’s highly unlikely.
Read more:
Hegseth order ‘caught White House off guard’
Moment Ukrainian drone hits high-rise building in Russia
It would risk damaging relations with Donald Trump, whose stance regarding peace talks appears to have shifted recently in Kyiv’s favour.
But Ukraine is still doing its best to disrupt the preparations here. Multiple drone attacks over the past few days have forced Moscow’s airports to repeatedly suspend operations, just as foreign leaders have been flying in.
Serbia’s president Aleksandar Vucic reportedly took 10 hours to reach Moscow after his flight had to stopover in Azerbaijan. While more drones targeted Moscow just before Mr Xi touched down on Wednesday afternoon.
It’s an attempt by Ukraine to humiliate Mr Putin, and to convey to his guests how much it disapproves of their visit, which it regards as a show of support for Russia’s invasion.
