Donald Trump is ramping up pressure on his Ukrainian counterpart to sign away up to 50% of its mineral supplies.
Amid concerns Mr Trump would withdraw aid if elected, during a meeting at Trump Tower in September, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reportedly proposed a US stake in Ukrainian minerals in exchange for more weapons.
But since Mr Trump’s return to the White House, US-Ukrainian relations have become increasingly strained, with him branding Mr Zelenskyy a “dictator” and excluding Ukraine from negotiations with Russia.
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A Ukrainian source told Sky News that Mr Zelenskyy is “not ready” to sign the US agreement due to a “number of problematic issues”, with a leaked draft claiming to ask for 50%. French President Emmanuel Macron has lent his support to the idea.
Here we look at Ukraine’s mineral supply – and why the US wants access to it.
Which minerals does Ukraine have?
Before Russia’s invasion in February 2022, minerals made up 6.1% of Ukraine’s GDP (gross domestic product) and 30% of its exports.
It is home to various ‘critical’ minerals, so called for their use in technology manufacturing, defence systems, and green energy, with examples including copper, nickel, lithium, and titanium.
According to the European Commission, in 2019 Ukraine supplied 7% of global titanium, which is used for building nuclear power plants and planes.
Similarly, it is believed to have more lithium (used to make batteries) than any other European country – a suspected 500,000 tonnes.
Before Russia’s invasion, it was also responsible for a fifth of global graphite, which is a key material for nuclear power stations and electric vehicle batteries.
Other raw materials in good supply include coal, iron ore, and manganese.
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Pre-war figures are the most reliable, as up to 40% of Ukrainian metallic minerals are now in areas occupied by Russia – namely the Donbas and neighbouring eastern regions.
For example, two of Ukraine’s lithium deposits are under Russian control – Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk.
Rare earth elements
Rare earth elements (REE) are a group of 17 exotic minerals used to make everything from smartphones and electronic devices, to electric vehicles, wind turbines, and weapons systems.
Examples include europium, a material for control rods at nuclear power plants, and gadolinium, used to make the magnets inside mobile phones – as well as holmium, ytterbium, and dysprosium.
They are not strictly rare – but their extraction and storage are highly energy-intensive.
With the details of war-torn Ukraine’s mineral supplies uncertain – it is not clear which REEs are present there and how much there are of them.
But in a pre-war assessment of 109 critical mineral deposits across the country by the Kyiv School of Economics, three were reported to contain REEs.
Ukrainian mineral data, seen by Reuters, has also cited cerium, neodymium, erbium, yttrium, and lanthanum.
Why does Trump want them?
Donald Trump has not been clear about which minerals he wants from Ukraine.
And as Sky’s economics and data editor Ed Conway says, there are far greater supplies of lithium, graphite, and titanium elsewhere, including in the US.
But what is far more certain is the role China has to play in Mr Trump’s demands.
As the biggest manufacturer in the world, China processes more REEs than any other country – with its deposits representing between 50% and 75% of global supply, according to estimates.
As a result, both the US and Europe are trying to reduce their dependency on Beijing.
In December as Mr Trump prepared to return to office, China banned the export of some REEs to the US. Under Joe Biden’s administration, it had already restricted its US mineral exports.
In response on 1 February, the Trump administration announced 10% tariffs on all Chinese imports.
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Beyond the trade war with China, REEs and critical minerals are fundamental to the global green energy transition.
According to the World Meteorological Organisation, to meet net-zero targets by 2030, we will need three times as much copper, lithium, nickel, and cobalt.
This will mean a further 50 lithium, 60 nickel, and 17 cobalt mines globally.
