Has President Trump just given the biggest indication yet that he’s done with this war in Iran?
There’ve been a flurry of overnight developments.
The caveat, up front, is that this is a president who changes his mind and has delivered very mixed messages in recent weeks. He also sees real value in saying one thing and doing the opposite. He bluffs.
That said, his language is more definitive than before. It feels more than ever like an “off-ramp” from his “Iran excursion” as he calls it.
Iran war latest: Trump considers ‘winding down’ Iran war
First, on the White House south lawn, he told us: “Oh, I think we’ve won. We’ve knocked out their navy, their air force. We’ve knocked out their anti-aircraft. We’ve knocked out everything. We’re roaming free.”
He followed that with: “We want victory… and that’s what we’ve got.”
As ever the messaging was somewhat mixed. “Well, look,” he said: “… I don’t want to do a ceasefire. You know, you don’t do a ceasefire when you’re literally obliterating the other side.”
But then an hour later, from the air, on Air Force One he delivered the clearest indication yet, via his Truth Social account, that he’s keen to wind down the conflict.
Does he really think he’s achieved all the war aims, or is he now properly spooked by the global economic consequences the war has caused?
List of accomplishments
On Truth Social he said: “We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East with respect to the Terrorist Regime of Iran.”
Then he lists the accomplishments as he sees them:
“(1) Completely degrading Iranian Missile Capability, Launchers, and everything else pertaining to them.
“(2) Destroying Iran’s Defense Industrial Base.
“(3) Eliminating their Navy and Air Force, including Anti Aircraft Weaponry.
“(4) Never allowing Iran to get even close to Nuclear Capability, and always being in a position where the U.S.A. can quickly and powerfully react to such a situation, should it take place.
“(5) Protecting, at the highest level, our Middle Eastern Allies, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, and others.”
I’ll get to his kicker for his allies in a moment but a thought on those points above first.
The nuclear material is still in Iran
The first three points amount to the comprehensive destruction of Iran’s military – that may well be accurate given how intense the American and Israeli bombing has been over three weeks.
But point four – “Iran is now not even close to nuclear capability”?
Well it’s almost certainly been knocked back years, but the nuclear material – near weapons grade, remember – that’s still somewhere in Iran.
And, of course, for now at least the regime remains in place: more defiant, more aggrieved, more intent on revenge.
Danger of retaliation is huge
The danger of low-level, prolonged, dangerous and disruptive asymmetrical retaliation is huge. The Iranian regime, as President Trump reminds us, was the global sponsor and exporter of terror. Its sleeper cells are sophisticated. It’s a huge challenge for intelligence agencies.
Finally – the kicker in his statement.
“The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it – The United States does not! If asked, we will help these Countries in their Hormuz efforts, but it shouldn’t be necessary once Iran’s threat is eradicated.”
Put simply – he’s saying: “Sorry folks – not America’s problem. We broke the global energy market. You need to fix it.”
He adds that it will be easy to fix. No one else anywhere is claiming that, by the way.
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So what next? Well, let’s see how what’s left of the Iranian government responds to this apparent shift by President Trump.
Remember too that this is a president who shifts, changes, and contradicts his own statements all the time.
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To underline that, thousands more American troops are already on the way to the region.
Don’t take anything for certain.
