As the world awaits possible US military action against Iran, has Donald Trump boxed himself into a corner with only himself to blame?
There is a massive amount of American firepower now in the region, and its commander-in-chief has issued Tehran with multiple warnings: Make a deal or else.
But what if they don’t?
The president’s plan appears to have been to use the US Navy to force the Iranians to accept his terms with a gun to their head, but it’s not working out.
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His chief negotiator, Steve Witkoff, has admitted as much.
“He’s curious”, he said of Trump, “as to why they haven’t capitulated, why under this sort of pressure with the amount of naval power that we have over there, why they haven’t come to us.”
So what now? The president “understands that he’s got plenty of alternatives”, claims Witkoff, but does he?
Option one
One option could be calibrated strikes. Whack Iran once and see if that makes its government more amenable.
Experts say that could prove a massive miscalculation. The Iranian government is in a tight spot, no doubt, but it may try to ride out the storm if it’s just a series of strikes.
Option two
Or the president could authorise attacking Iran with full force. But that’s problematic too.
Observers warn that for all the military muscle mustered in the region, there is still not enough to sustain an extended air campaign.
In leaks infuriating the president, his own commanders at the Pentagon have been warning as much.
Two carrier strike groups and all the warplanes sent to bases to bolster them could bombard Iran for a week, at most two, it is thought.
That would be painful for the Iranians, but they could try to hunker down and tough that out, too. And they would strike back with their formidable arsenal of ballistic missiles.
Option three
Attacking Iran comes with considerable jeopardy for the president. But so does walking away.
For all his bellicose rhetoric, the “TACO president” could chicken out and send his aircraft carriers back to base.
Read more from Sky News:
How Iran may be preparing for US strike
Is Tehran ready to strike a deal?
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But having built up so much firepower, doing nothing would look weak and have consequences: for America’s standing and the president’s own political fortunes at a time when his approval ratings are cratering.
Talks in Geneva scheduled for Thursday offer an off-ramp. Iran has another chance to “capitulate”, as Witkoff puts it. But they are past masters at brinkmanship and calling their enemies’ bluff.
If they do so, has the US president thought this all through, or has he cooked his own goose?
