The Mexican authorities would’ve expected a violent backlash after the killing of El Mencho, one of the country’s most powerful cartel bosses.
But it’s likely they’ll have been surprised at the scale of violence across so much of the country.
That violence appears to have calmed down for now, but there’s nothing to indicate it will simply peter out.
‘El Mencho’ killing – as it happened
When incidents like this happen, the cartels usually respond in three ways. The first is a show of strength, aimed at deterring the authorities from carrying out more raids – that’s what has just happened.
The second is often fighting between factions within the same cartel or turf wars with other cartels trying to muscle their way into the territory – something gang members are already talking about.
The third is to launch a war against the Mexican government and its security forces.
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It wouldn’t be what we have seen over the past 24 hours; it would be something far more organised. This will no doubt be on the government’s mind.
El Mencho was head of the Jalisco New Generation cartel, one of the only ones I haven’t managed to access in my time covering Mexico’s drug wars.
Jalisco New Generation are notoriously violent and untrustworthy, and our go-betweens in Mexico have always warned us not to even try approach them, although we have tried, but with little success.
This cartel, along with the Sinaloa drug cartel, is the top producer of a range of illegal drugs, including the opioid fentanyl, a drug predominantly made in Mexico and exported to the United States, where it kills thousands of users every year.
Just because its leader has been killed, it doesn’t mean that Jalisco New Generation as a cartel is anywhere near finished.
US President Donald Trump’s war on drugs has mainly focused on Colombia, Ecuador, Venezuela, and Mexico – and ever since Venezuela’s Nicholas Maduro was captured in January, Mexico’s government has come under even more pressure to take the war to the cartels inside Mexico and show some results.
Read more on Sky News:
El Mencho’s death followed partner’s visit
Who is ‘El Mencho’ and why does his death matter?
El Mencho’s scalp will be much appreciated by the Trump administration and will likely take off some of the pressure on Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico’s president.
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But with the football World Cup not too far away, and Mexico, like the United States and Canada, a host nation, President Sheinbaum’s government needs to contain the fallout from this very quickly, or people may not risk going to Mexico.
