Donald Trump’s grandstanding on Greenland betrays a disdain for NATO that means this crisis for the alliance is far from over despite his sudden climbdown.
Governments in London, Paris, Berlin, and Copenhagen may well be breathing a sigh of relief that a historic rupture with Washington over the Arctic territory – which is part of the Kingdom of Denmark, a fellow NATO member – appears to have been averted for now.
Trump’s climbdown as it happened
But the ease at which the president felt he could publicly humiliate and bully them in the pursuit of his own interests is surely the loudest wake-up call yet for the UK, European allies and Canada to rebuild their own defences instead of overly relying on the US.
In a head-spinning flip, Trump on Wednesday went from threatening hostile action against those who defied his hopes for an Arctic land grab, to posting a harmonious message on social media about forming “the framework of a future deal” on the territory.
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Key points from Trump’s Davos speech
The ‘Daddy’ strategy
The shift followed a meeting with Mark Rutte, the head of NATO, on the sidelines of a major economic forum in Davos.
Rutte, a former prime minister of the Netherlands who knows the American commander in chief well, grabbed headlines last year because of his fawning language when talking to Trump, even referring to him as “daddy” – a label the US leader seemed to like.
However, this strategic sycophancy – despite being cringey – appears to be paying off.
The secretary general kept Trump onside at a NATO summit last June even though the US president has long criticised his allies for freeloading off American security instead of investing sufficient money in their own armed forces – a fair challenge.
Rutte now appears to have helped navigate some kind of compromise on the US presence in Greenland, though he has no legal authority to negotiate the fate of the territory.
The deal is unclear…
After the Davos meeting, Trump posted on his Truth Social site that he and the NATO boss “have formed the framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland and, in fact, the entire Arctic region. His solution, if consummated, will be a great one for the United States of America and all NATO nations”.
He then scrapped a threat to hit the UK and seven other allies with tariffs from next month.
The finer details of the Greenland plan, which may or may not be accepted by Greenlanders and Denmark, is not yet clear.
…the damage done is not
What is in no doubt, though, is the damage that this rift has already caused to NATO cohesion, prompting many European nations, even the typically uber-loyal UK, to use increasingly strident language when pushing back against Trump’s demands.
Tough words are one thing, but for Britain and the rest of Europe to stand a chance of being able to ensure their collective and national interests are protected, going forward, they will need to stop talking about rebuilding their military capabilities and start urgently acting.
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Rutte’s flattering diplomacy will at best be buying a bit more time for these countries to – in Trump’s own words – “step up” and defend themselves.
Such a move will not only make NATO stronger to counter external threats, such as from Russia and China.
It will also cushion allies from whenever Trump next decides to turn on them.
