“The situation is critical…” Those are the four words a top European diplomat chose when we discussed Donald Trump’s position on Greenland.
Others have used similar language… “unprecedented”, “extraordinary”, “urgent”, “serious”.
Honestly, this is truly a bizarre situation for America’s European allies to be in.
But most of all, for the people of Greenland, this feels truly existential. Too often in this whole debate it seems to be forgotten that Greenland is a nation, a people, a culture.
Here are five takeaways from conversations I have been having here in Washington – what all this means and what next.
Trump isn’t bluffing
First, notwithstanding Trump‘s “Art of the Deal” tactics, it is the Danish government’s view – underlined following their foreign ministers’ meeting with Trump’s team this past week – that the American president is serious.
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He wants ownership of Greenland. The challenge is to find a compromise – a middle ground – if there is one.
No compatibility
That’s the second point: there appears to be no compatibility at all between President Trump’s position and the EU/Danish/Greenland position.
The Danish government has tried to remind the Americans – most recently in this past week’s top-level meeting – that they are flexible and open to dialogue and common ground. The only red line the Danes have is any discussion about ceding territory and sovereignty.
The Americans can place as many troops as they want in Greenland, they can rename a base “Fort Trump” if they want, they can discuss access to critical minerals. All of that is possible. Everything except handing over Greenland and its people to America.
Yet I am told that privately, the American position matches Trump’s public rhetoric. It amounts to: “We appreciate all your offers and your cooperation, but now the president believes the only way to secure Greenland from Chinese and Russian threats is if it becomes American territory.”
That makes any dialogue difficult and it’s hard to see where any compromise might be found.
There may be pressure on Denmark to “cut a deal” but it’s hard to see what the middle ground is and what any deal would look like.
Incidentally, the sense I get here in Washington is that within the US administration there are varying views on the wisdom of Trump’s Greenland position. But as we know, the president calls the shots, and no one questions him.
Will Europe capitulate?
The third point is whether Europeans will, again, capitulate to Trump.
They’ve repeatedly bent the knee to the American president, bowing to his demands and petrified of what his tariff threats could do.
But this time, the sense I’m getting is they are tired of his games. They’ll hold firm, maybe, because ceding a European territory to America under duress or otherwise is unthinkable, surely. Still – if he follows through with the tariffs, they will hurt.
Greenland’s strategic importance
It’s worth underlining that there are unquestionable strategic reasons for Greenland to be close to the US. The Arctic is opening up and as ice melts, the “high north” is increasingly a new frontier where world powers will compete for control.
European countries and Greenland all recognise this. But the European argument is that it is possible for the US to be much closer to Greenland without Greenland becoming America. It’s been two decades since the Americans last asked for any sufficient military expansion of its forces in Greenland.
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Trump’s view is that the only way to deter hypothetical future attempts by Russia or China to take Greenland is to make it American territory.
He says Danish sovereignty would not deter them. It is telling that he is ignoring the fact that Greenland is protected by NATO’s Article 5 commitment that an attack on one member is an attack on all.
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Awkward for the UK
A final thought. Trump’s hostile takeover threats on Greenland are awkward for the UK.
While other European governments have seen Trump as an unreliable ally, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has consistently suggested that Britain has a handle on President Trump; knows how to deal with him, hence the “superior” trade deal it secured.
That’s all looking a bit uncomfortable now as the American president doubles down again on his hostile takeover of Greenland.
