It’s been more than a year since a ceasefire was agreed in Lebanon, but data shows that the truce between Israel and Hezbollah is more fragile than ever.
The independent conflict monitoring organisation ACLED has recorded 1,846 Israeli attacks on Lebanon since the ceasefire began.
On average, only two days of each month have not seen an Israeli attack.
The bombings have grown more frequent in recent weeks, with an average of six per day so far in December, or one every four hours – the fastest pace of attacks since March.
Israel says it is targeting Hezbollah military infrastructure
The ceasefire deal requires both sides to withdraw from southern Lebanon, the area south of the Litani river.
The UN mission in southern Lebanon, UNIFIL, says the agreement has been violated more than 10,000 times – once every 53 minutes.
That includes the attacks monitored by ACLED, as well as more than 2,500 IDF ground activities and over 7,800 violations of Lebanese airspace.
It also includes the discovery, by UNIFIL, of more than 360 weapon and ammunition caches south of the Litani river.
Israel says that these caches are evidence that Hezbollah is seeking to rebuild its military infrastructure in southern Lebanon, an allegation denied by both Hezbollah and UNIFIL.
“None of these weapon caches were guarded,” says UNIFIL deputy spokesperson Kandice Ardiel. “They had no obvious signs of recent use and were presumably abandoned. Many were even destroyed already, or half-destroyed.”
An IDF spokesperson said that Hezbollah’s attempts to rebuild its military infrastructure in southern Lebanon “are not open to interpretation”.
“In the absence of sufficient enforcement by UNIFIL, and out of commitment to the security of the Israeli civilians, the IDF continues to operate in a focused manner against Hezbollah’s restoration attempts,” the spokesperson said.
At least 127 civilians have been killed by Israeli attacks since the ceasefire began, according to the UN.
Israel argues that the ceasefire agreement requires Hezbollah to disarm in all parts of Lebanon, not just the south. Hezbollah disputes this, and says it will not consider full disarmament until Israel withdraws entirely from Lebanese territory.
Israel has established five military bases inside Lebanon
This withdrawal was supposed to take place by 27 January 2025, a deadline that was later extended to 18 February.
But instead of withdrawing from its Lebanese bases, Israel began cementing its presence.
Sky News has confirmed, based on satellite imagery, that Israel started construction on a new base, shown below, between 8 and 18 February – within days of the withdrawal deadline.
Israel retains control of four other bases on Lebanese territory, scattered along hilltops near the border.
“We need to remain at those points at the moment to defend Israeli citizens, to make sure this process is complete and eventually hand it over to the Lebanese armed forces,” IDF spokesman Nadav Shoshani said in February.
Lebanon has raised complaints with the UN about these bases, as well as Israel’s recent extension of its border wall. The UN says that two sections of the wall cross into Lebanese territory, putting around one acre on the Israeli side.
Sky News asked the IDF whether it accepted the UN’s findings, but did not receive a response to this question.
In the image below, part of the newly constructed wall can be seen passing between border posts, highlighted in green, into Lebanese territory.
Construction of the wall resumed over summer, having been halted since hostilities erupted in October 2023. Based on satellite imagery, Sky News estimates that a total of 12km of wall have been erected in recent months.
The continued presence of Israeli forces has hampered reconstruction efforts. More than 64,000 Lebanese people remain displaced from their homes.
Sky News visited one of the towns that sits in view of the Israeli base on Mount Balat. The town, Aita al Chaab, has been almost entirely destroyed.
Satellite imagery, taken on 24 November, shows the town in ruins. Out of 326 buildings in the town centre, 293 (91%) have been destroyed.
Since the ceasefire began, the destruction has continued and has spread to the Aita al Chaab’s outskirts.
“Anyone who comes to rebuild is attacked [by Israel],” one resident told Sky News.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
