Police are preparing for a surge in crime if the Labour government’s plans to overhaul prison sentences go ahead – with hundreds of thousands more offences expected in a year.
Measures proposed under the Sentencing Bill, intended to ease overcrowding in prisons, include limiting the use of short prison sentences and releasing some convicted criminals earlier.
However, police chiefs are warning such measures could see up to a 6% rise in crime in the immediate aftermath, should the plans become law.
It comes as a manhunt is under way for two prisoners mistakenly released from HMP Wandsworth, including Brahim Kaddour-Cherif, a 24-year-old Algerian man and registered sex offender, and 35-year-old William Smith.
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‘It has to be properly funded’
Assistant Chief Constable Jason Devonport, who spent 18 months on secondment as a prison governor at HMP Berwyn, said forces are planning for an increase in all types of offences.
While he said community programmes to support rehabilitation “are being ramped up,” he warned officers “expect, certainly in the short term, there will be an increase of offending in the community”.
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“I believe in the Sentencing Bill and I believe in rehabilitation,” he added, “but it has to be properly funded.”
ACC Devonport said the probation service is trying to recruit 1,500 officers a year for the next three years to manage demand, and that the rise in police-recorded crime in one year is expected to be between 4% and 6%.
In the year to June 2025, police in England and Wales recorded 6.6 million offences. A rise of 6% would then equal around 396,000 additional recorded crimes.
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Gavin Stephens, chairman of the National Police Chiefs’ Council, added that officers have “all been in policing long enough to know that some of the things that help people stop offending or desist from offending are not going to be resolved by short sentences in particular”.
However, he added: “Our issue is in the short-term period of the implementation, there is a shift of demand on to policing, and we want that shift of demand on to us to be properly recognised and properly modelled… so we can have the right and appropriate resource in there to mitigate the risk to communities.”
Chief political correspondent
The charitable view of the latest prison release blunder that has plunged the government into another political crisis is that it’s extremely bad luck rather than an act of incompetence by ministers.
But the more we learn about the shocking details of what happened and what looks like a cynical attempt at a cover-up by the hapless David Lammy, the more the blame can be laid at the government’s door.
Prison system at ‘breaking point,’ warns MP
In a further warning about the state of law and order in the UK, the chair of the Justice Committee has said the prison system is at “breaking point”.
Labour MP Andy Slaughter called the latest releases from HMP Wandsworth “extremely concerning,” adding: “While the day to day running of prison security and public safety are paramount, the current spate of releases in error will be repeated until the underlying failures are addressed.”
He also said evidence taken by the committee “laid bare a crisis-hit prison system, starved of investment over many years which is facing multi-faceted pressures”.
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What do we know about the manhunt?
The south London prison admitted on Wednesday that Kaddour-Cherif, who sentenced for trespass with an intent to steal, was accidentally released on 29 October.
His release came just five days after the high-profile release of migrant sex offender Hadush Kebatu from HMP Chelmsford in Essex.
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Hours after Kaddour-Cherif’s accidental release was confirmed by the Met, Surrey Police announced it was also searching for Smith after another error by prison staff.
The 35-year-old, who was sentenced to 45 months for multiple fraud offences and goes by the name Billy, had apparently been released on Monday.
It is not yet clear why it was nearly a week between the first release at Wandsworth and the police being informed that an offender was at large.
Both mistakes follow vows by Deputy Prime Minister and Justice Secretary David Lammy that enhanced checks on prisoner releases would be introduced.
He came under fire while standing in for Sir Keir Starmer at PMQs, but sought to blame the Conservatives, saying: “In 25 years in this House, I have not witnessed a more shameful spectacle frankly than what the party opposite left in our justice system.”
News of Kaddour-Cherif’s release broke as PMQs was ending, and a comment released on Mr Lammy’s behalf said he was “absolutely outraged” about it.
He had been repeatedly asked whether any more asylum seekers had been mistakenly released from jail since the Kebatu case, and refused to answer.
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In response to concerns of a spike in crime should the Sentencing Bill become law, a Ministry of Justice spokesperson said the government “inherited a prison system in crisis, days away from running out of space”.
“Public safety will always be our top priority, and we are building 14,000 more prison places to keep dangerous offenders locked up,” they added.
“Offenders released face strict licence conditions, and we are increasing the probation budget by an extra £700 million over the next three years and investing in new technology to reduce admin, so staff can focus on work that reduces reoffending.”
And in response to the manhunt for the two released convicts, a spokesperson said: “Releases in error have been increasing for several years and are another symptom of a justice system crisis inherited by this government.”
They added: “We are clear that these mistakes must not continue to happen.”
