Two of the most important Labour-affiliated unions are set to nominate their choice for who should replace Angela Rayner as the party’s deputy leader.
Unison and GMB will pick their candidate on 25 September – two days ahead of the deadline for nominations for Labour affiliates and local party branches.
Bridget Phillipson, the education secretary, is seen as the government’s choice of candidate in the race, which has effectively turned into a de facto confidence vote on Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership.
She is up against Lucy Powell, who was sacked as Commons leader in the recent reshuffle and has become the candidate for MPs who are unhappy with the party’s direction after a difficult first year in government.
Ms Phillipson has already secured the backing of the two unions – Community and the Union of Shop, Distributive and Allied Workers.
Will unions want to say ‘sod you’ to PM?
There are question marks over who Unison, GMB and Unite will back in the race, triggered by Ms Rayner quitting as deputy leader, deputy prime minister and housing secretary over underpaid stamp duty on a second home.
While Ms Phillipson may be boosted by having the backing of Number 10, the level of discontent in the Labour Party and wider union movement is at such a level that Ms Powell’s “outsider” status may benefit her.
One union source told Sky News that while they felt Ms Phillipson was the “better candidate”, “the temptation to vote Lucy to give a ‘sod you’ to government is a lot”.
They added: “Number 10 need to start fearing the party. They’ve had it too easy.”
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Another union insider said there was a “sense among union leaders that they wish this wasn’t happening”.
They questioned how important a role the unions would play in this contest due to the tight timetable, making it harder for them to mobilise behind a candidate.
“Most unions feel this is not a hugely impactful moment either way,” they said.
“Many of their members will be feeling quite grumpy at how things are going with the government, but at the same time, union leaders won’t want to get on the wrong side of Number 10 over something that is not going to make a meaningful difference in the long term.”
There are questions over the extent of Unite’s involvement and interest in the race.
Although the union is Labour’s biggest supporter, Sharon Graham, its general secretary, has sought to turn its focus away from internal party politics and on to industrial disputes.
On the first day of the Trades Union Congress in Brighton, she told Sky News she’d be “looking very much at their track record – have they backed workers? That’s what I’ll be looking for”.
How will the race play out?
In order to proceed to the next stage of the contest, the two candidates must each secure nominations from at least 5% of constituency Labour parties, or at least three organisations affiliated that to the party. At least two of these must be trade unions which make up 5% of fully paid-up affiliated party members.
The deadline to secure the necessary support is Saturday 27 September.
The Labour Party’s annual conference begins the next day, where the candidates who have secured the required backing will be able to make their pitches directly to members in a final hustings.
Ms Phillipson has pitched herself as the candidate who can “unite” the party after a difficult first year in power, which has seen Labour sink to just 20% in the polls, behind Nigel Farage’s Reform, which is leading on 28%.
Ms Phillipson, who has spoken of growing up in a working class area of Sunderland before going on to high office, said she was the person to take on Reform and secure a second term for Labour.
Speaking at a hustings event last week, she told members: “You can use this contest to look backward, to pass judgment on what has happened in the last year, or you can use it to shape positively what happens in the run-up to the next election.”
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‘Unforced errors’ cost government
Her message comes in contrast to that of Ms Powell, who has pitched herself as the “shop steward” of the parliamentary party willing to deliver criticism to the prime minister if necessary.
She said Labour’s mistakes in office over welfare and winter fuel payments had given the impression that it is “not on the side of ordinary people”.
In an interview with the BBC, Ms Powell praised the government’s “many achievements”, but added: “Some of the mistakes that we’ve made, or some of the unforced errors, have given a sense that we’re not on the side of ordinary people.”
Although Ms Powell secured fewer nominations from MPs than Ms Phillipson, recent polling by Survation suggests she is ahead with members on 47%, compared with 30% for her rival.
