Vladimir Putin will know exactly how he wants this to play out.
He is the master negotiator who’s been doing this for decades.
He’ll be across all the details, the history and the legal arguments. And he’ll know that his opponent is not.
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His strategy will be to exploit that.
I think the ultimate aim for the Kremlin leader is to convince Donald Trump that the quickest path to peace is a deal on Russia’s terms.
But he can’t present it like that. He’ll have to give the appearance of making concessions because he knows the American president can’t lose face here. He must have something to show from this summit.
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That something could be the promise of a meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, which Trump has once again talked up the chances of.
But if that’s the case, I suspect it’ll be a loose promise, with strings attached. Something the White House can claim is progress, but may prove unachievable.
I expect the Russian president will seek to play on Trump’s desire for a rapid resolution to the conflict and his desire to take credit for it.
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That’s why Putin has been buttering him up ahead of the meeting, praising Trump’s “energetic and sincere” efforts to find peace.
I think he’ll also try to appeal to Trump’s transactional nature and seek to tempt him with various sweeteners that could come from siding with Russia.
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That means things like rare earth deals and joint projects in the Arctic, which is why the Russian delegation includes finance minister Anton Siluanov and Kremlin investment envoy Kirill Dmitriev.
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It also includes defence minister Andrei Belousov, which might suggest that Putin is serious about proposing a deal on nuclear arms control, after raising the prospect of it on Thursday.
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Only one pact remains between the US and Russia, and it expires in February.
A new one would almost certainly be a prize the American president would go for.
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The challenge for Putin is to make Trump feel like he is the one in charge.
For the former KGB agent, that might not be too tricky.
