Donald Trump’s early departure from the G7 was entirely in keeping with a president semi-detached.
He looked an awkward fit in Kananaskis, Alberta – a reluctant guest among political counterparts for whom he remains a curiosity – not in a good way.
If he wanted an early ‘out’, he had a good excuse. They know here, as in the Middle East, that Trump is the pivotal president who can turn war into peace.
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In executing the responsibility, he has turned back to the negotiating table. Iranian officials had asked for fresh talks and it seems they have their wish, with a White House offer of discussions on a ceasefire and nuclear deal.
They have been here before without success, but the context has clearly changed.
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As Iran endeavours to talk its way towards a resolution, Israel has other ideas. It wants the US to supply the bunker-busting bombs it lacks to penetrate Iran’s underground nuclear storage sites.
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The Israelis have the ear of the US president. For now, however, Trump believes he can reach a deal with the Iranians through dialogue.
His negotiating position is further strengthened by the prospect of answering Israel’s call and engaging US weaponry.
If and when the Iranians sit down with the Americans for fresh discussions, it will feel like make or break. For the absence of doubt, Donald Trump posted on social media last night: “Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!”
Donald Trump can claim a vindication of his strategy. Negotiations with Iran drifted and – if we assume US assent of the Israeli action – Trump effectively outsourced the military action that’s brought Iran to heel.
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The test of him now is how he exploits the opportunity, and trust will be at the heart of it.
The Iranians will consider how they negotiate in good faith with a US president aligned with an Israeli prime minister harbouring ambitions for regime change in their country.
For their part, the Israelis will ponder whether they can trust him to deliver, given their more belligerent view on the way forward.
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And they will have legitimate questions arising from the diplomatic history of a US president big on promises.
Whatever Trump states in his covering letter, the CV doesn’t read too well.
