It has been a brutal week in Gaza, hundreds have been killed as Israel has carried out waves of “preliminary” strikes ahead of a bigger offensive.
The ground manoeuvre has now begun.
The strategy is to “conquer” and then hold territory – some in the Israeli government say permanently.
But having repeatedly said the war will continue until “total victory”, the Israeli government has narrowed its options and set down a path of prolonged fighting.
Unless they can agree a ceasefire and hostage deal with Hamas then their only hope to rescue and retrieve the hostages is through military means, a strategy which hasn’t produced many results in the past 19 months.
But as long as Israel threatens to continue fighting, there is no incentive for Hamas to release the hostages, its only remaining card to play.
Conquering and then occupying territory means Israeli soldiers will at some point have to stand still and defend ground: that is always a vulnerable military position to be in.
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Hamas might have been destroyed to the point where it no longer poses a real danger to Israel, but there will always be someone ready to fight.
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Just ask British or American soldiers who served in Iraq or Afghanistan.
Only political agreements end insurgencies.
Forcing two million Gazans into a small area around Rafah will make an already dire humanitarian crisis significantly worse, for which Israel will be blamed.
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And there is even scepticism within Israel itself that this is the right strategy.
Hostage families fear that this operation will risk the lives of the twenty hostages believed to be still alive and there are multiple reports in Israeli media that IDF commanders don’t believe they can achieve what the government is demanding of them.
And yet any retreat from the offensive now will be perceived as a failure and even surrender, particularly by far-right politicians who remain vital to the existence of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition.
The routes to a truce are vanishing, and Gaza is at the mercy of what comes next.
