Nine days into the war, the Iranian regime remains intact and, at least to some degree, in control of the country.
Street protests are yet to materialise, no doubt as the opposition movement is waiting to see whether the US will stay the course.
A sudden retreat by Washington would leave protestors exposed and at the mercy of whatever state rump remains.
So why, after the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on the first day of the conflict, has the regime not collapsed like other dictatorships did in Libya, Syria and Iraq?
Its survival, so far, can be put down to a complex hybrid structure of governance developed after the 1979 revolution to withstand external or internal challenge.
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The system is deliberately designed to be bigger than one man, which means that if you kill the Supreme Leader you don’t kill the regime.
Iran war latest: Iran has chosen new supreme leader after killing of Ayatollah Khamenei in US-Israel strike – state media
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Power has been distributed to several bodies, most of which are still functioning, just about.
It is unlike any government anywhere else in the world.
Supreme Leader
The Supreme Leader is the ultimate political and religious authority in the country, a role created following the 1979 revolution.
He is a senior religious cleric, chosen by the Assembly of Experts – an 88-person body – and appointed for life.
The Supreme Leader has a hand in everything: the head of intelligence, the army and other sensitive roles must all be approved by him.
There have only ever been two Supreme Leaders in the country’s history: Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Assembly of Experts
The Assembly of Experts is a group we will hear a lot about in the coming days. It’s made up of 88 men and its main role is to select and appoint The Supreme Leader.
That is what they will be trying to do right now, following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
In theory, they can also remove the Supreme Leader if he is deemed unfit, but in reality they rarely interfere.
Guardian Council
Beneath the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council is one of the most powerful institutions.
It consists of 12 members: six Islamic clerics chosen by The Supreme Leader and six jurists appointed by the parliament.
The Guardian Council reviews laws passed by parliament, ensures conformity to strict Islamic rule and can decide who runs for parliament, giving it enormous power over Iranian politics.
The Judiciary
Headed by a Chief Justice appointed by the Supreme Leader, the judiciary is a feared body in Iran. It doesn’t just supervise courts and select prosecutors, it also interprets strict conservative Islamic law, therefore giving it huge influence over Iranian society.
The President
The president, currently Masoud Pezeshkian, is elected every four years and runs the government, appoints ministers and proposes the budget.
Like parliamentarians, he too must be approved by the Guardian Council.
The Expediency Council
The role of the Expediency Council is to advise the Supreme Leader. They can also resolve disputes between parliament and the Guardian Council
Iranian Army
The Iranian Army, known as Artesh, has existed since the time Iran was a monarchy. Its primary role is to protect Iran’s borders.
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
The IRGC was established following the 1979 revolution because Ayatollah Khomeini didn’t trust the Artesh, fearing they were loyal to the deposed Shah.
They are answerable directly to the Supreme Leader and exist to preserve the Islamic Republic.
The IRGC grew in size, and ability, through the eight years of the Iran-Iraq War that began in September 1980.
As well as having a navy and air force branch, the IRGC controls the feared Basij militia responsible for violent crackdowns on protest movements, and the Quds Force, the international arm of the IRGC, which developed a network of proxies through the Middle East – including Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis.
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The IRGC today is an extremely hardline and brutal force. They are also wealthy and extremely influential in Iranian politics – it will be crucial to see what hand they have in the appointment of the next Supreme Leader.
In the event of the death of the Supreme Leader, as is currently the case, the Chief Justice, President and a member of the Guardian Council jointly and temporarily take on the job of Supreme Leader, although not in name.
