Four years into this war, the diplomatic wheels are grinding but exceedingly slow.
The best that can be said for talks is they are continuing.
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, however delusionally, believes he can still win this war. And he has not shifted on his aims of eradicating Ukraine as an independent sovereign nation.
His forces’ recent reversals on the battlefield have not shaken him in either of those convictions. There are therefore severe doubts about his sincerity in negotiations to end this war.
Russia continues to ask to be handed territory through diplomacy that tens of thousands of Russians have died trying to conquer in vain.
American negotiators are apparently continuing to encourage them.
Steve Witkoff, who says he doesn’t regard Putin as a bad guy, is reportedly still pushing for the Ukrainians to hand over the entirety of the Donbas.
Ukrainians believe he and his boss in the White House are being seduced by fantasy business deals being offered by Russia. Putin money man Kirill Dmitriev says $14trn worth of deals are available once relations are restored.
The history of American investments in Russia does not support such rosy optimism, littered with corruption, embezzlement, partners being jailed or killed.
The Ukrainians are baffled by Donald Trump‘s continuing belief the war is only going in one direction, that they hold no cards and that they should sign up to a bad deal or else.
It would be impossible to hand over the Donbas without a referendum and unimaginable that a public vote would approve doing so.
Read more:
How war has changed Zelenskyy and Putin
The perception in Kyiv is, with some justification, that the Trump team is not a fair or honest broker in these negotiations.
Most recently Volodymyr Zelenskyy said it “was not fair” that Trump keeps asking his country to compromise, adding “peace wouldn’t be achieved if victory is handed to Russia”.
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A delusional aggressor, partisan mediators and far from vanquished victims of a four-year unprovoked murderous invasion. Not the optimal conditions for diplomatic efforts.
Witkoff says “meaningful progress” is being made. There is little sign of it.
