The old, rules-based order that evolved from the ashes of the Second World War no longer exists – at least that is the verdict of Germany’s chancellor, and the evidence is clear to see.
The United States signalled at a major security conference in Munich over the weekend that it is ready to go it alone, without its European allies – unless they get serious about rearming.
Russia is showing no real desire to end its war in Ukraine.
And China is gaining a level of strength and influence that can only be rivalled by America.
It all means so-called big power competition – potentially leading to larger-scale conflict – is back, and small and medium-sized countries like the UK and its European allies need each other more than ever.
That was a key message coming from this year’s Munich Security Conference.
It was delivered via speeches by prime ministers, presidents and foreign secretaries on a large stage inside a hotel surrounded by police, barricades and security cordons.
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Friedrich Merz, the German leader, set the tone with his address on Friday, the first day of the event which stretched until Sunday morning.
“In the era of great powers, our freedom is no longer simply guaranteed. It is under threat,” he said.
“The international order based on rights and rules… no longer exists in the way it once did.”
President Vladimir Putin and President Xi Jinping of China have already been working to undermine this global system that was created by design to favour liberal democracies and restrict authoritarian regimes by enshrining fundamental values such as human rights and the rule of law.
But the end of the Cold War meant that many European governments chose to shift funding away from their respective armed forces that had given them the hard military strength to be able to defend and fight for these values were they ever to be challenged again in the future.
Instead, and especially across western Europe, they relied on the United States to defend them in crisis as part of the NATO alliance.
Donald Trump, though, has since made clear this assumption of transatlantic protection can no longer be taken for granted. His administration has also gone further, attacking European leaders on domestic issues such as over immigration and free speech.
In fact, vice president JD Vance, who led the US delegation in Munich a year ago, questioned whether European values were ones America should even be defending anymore.
He did not return this time around.
Washington’s position instead was represented by Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, who struck a more diplomatic, conciliatory tone.
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This was welcomed by delegates but his message was no less sharp – Europe needs to take greater responsibility for its own defences as the US steps away to focus on other priorities deemed to be more important to America’s national interests.
“We want Europe to be strong,” he said in his speech on the main stage.
“We believe that Europe must survive because the two great wars of the last century serve for us as history’s constant reminder that ultimately our destiny is and will always be intertwined with yours.”
But he added: “Under President Trump, the United States of America will once again take on the task of renewal and restoration, driven by a vision of a future as proud as sovereign and as vital as our civilisation’s past. And while we are prepared, if necessary, to do this alone, it is our preference, and it is our hope to do this together with you, our friends here in Europe.”
Sir Keir Starmer, the British prime minister, did his best to say the UK and its European allies are stepping up to fix their hollowed-out defences.
“We must build our hard power because that is the currency of the age,” he told delegates when it was his turn to speak.
“We must be able to deter aggression and, yes, if necessary we must be ready to fight. To do whatever it takes to protect our people, our values and our way of life.
“And as Europe, we must stand on our own two feet.”
Yet, military insiders were quick to point out that his rhetoric was a far cry from the reality of his own country’s defence budget.
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The UK is only planning to inch up defence spending to 2.5% of GDP from 2.3% by next year, with no funded plan to lift it to the new NATO target of 3.5% by 2035 and no sign of any intention to accelerate the timeline even though other states are going much faster.
Elbridge Colby, the US under secretary of state for war policy, offered the clearest possible advice in an address he gave to NATO defence ministers in Brussels on the eve of the Munich summit about how they need to demonstrate action, not just words and numbers.
“It means moving beyond inputs and intentions toward outputs and capabilities,” he said.
“Defence spending levels matter, and there is no substitute for it. But what matters at the end of the day is what those resources produce: ready forces, usable munitions, resilient logistics and integrated command structures that work at scale under stress.
“It means prioritising war-fighting effectiveness over bureaucratic and regulatory stasis. It means making hard choices about force structure, readiness, stockpiles and industrial capacity that reflect the realities of modern conflict rather than peacetime politics.”
