“Bloody shambles”, a senior minister sighs. “Real question marks over his judgement.” “Still a shitshow”, another texts simply, adding: “Terminal inability to make decisions”.
Those blunt verdicts frame Sir Keir Starmer’s march into recess: a leader who has steadied himself enough to stave off immediate crisis, but whose authority and judgement are still being openly questioned as the party looks ahead to a decisive spring.
Sir Keir has been on something of a charm offensive, hosting Scottish and Welsh colleagues at Chequers in a bid to reknit frayed loyalties.
“My God, he’s actually got a sense of humour – why don’t we ever see that side?” one backbencher remarked afterwards.
MPs I speak to are, broadly, in a better mood than they were 10 days ago. Even so, ministers concede the road ahead remains uncertain.
“I don’t know,” one says eventually when I ask whether the prime minister will survive beyond May.
The “only way” of replacing him “without too much pain”, another minister suggests, would be if Starmer chose to stand down himself. “At some point there’s only so much one man can take.” The minister would not say whether that would be their preferred outcome.
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One backbencher, not a usual critic, puts Starmer’s chances of surviving past May at 50 per cent.
For now, the short-term outcome is continuity rather than catastrophe. One MP describes Monday’s events as a “remarkable” turnaround: “Shockingly, it seems like we’ve turned a corner.”
But, as one minister warns, “the troublemakers will be happy for a few weeks and then find something else to complain about.” And there are several flashpoints looming.
The Gorton and Denton by-election is just two weeks away. Privately, Labour sources say the outlook on the ground is better than expected.
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Others argue the loudest voices are being heard, while the number of quietly loyal Labour MPs is being underestimated. “I only got my seat because people around the leadership backed me,” one MP tells me. “So I’ll stay loyal to Keir until the end.” A pause. “But that end may be fairly near.”
Those close to the prime minister say he can be at his best when his back is against the wall. His main line of defence to colleagues has been that he remains the best person for the job, and that there is no obvious alternative. It is that question of what comes next that may have saved him this week.
The contest over potential successors is, for now, fragmented. Angela Rayner looms large.
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“Ange won’t go for it unless someone else moves first,” says an ally. Even some who do not support her believe she could cut through on the doorstep. As one Red Wall MP puts it: “It would give me something to say. There’s a personality. There’s a product.”
Any prospect of a Wes Streeting leadership bid appears, for now, to be on ice. His critics continue to brief openly against him; one described to me his pre-interview “breath work” as evidence he is not ready to lead the party.
Defence Secretary John Healey has been floated by some as a steady, unity candidate. But a senior figure who has worked closely with him says: “He’s not ambitious like that.”
Another suggests he could act as a stalking horse, clearing the path for someone else.
One scenario put to me is that Starmer serves a full first term but stands aside before the next general election, allowing another figure to lead the party into the contest, echoing the decision of former French president Francois Hollande not to seek re-election, with another candidate campaigning as would-be president.
Of course, that election saw the Socialist Party vote collapse and Emmanuel Macron’s new movement sweep to power.
Sir Keir is being pulled in multiple directions. One minister argues he needs a more strategic view, particularly on Europe. Another frontbencher warns that a reset reshuffle designed to appease the soft left would “pretty much finish him”.
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With so many MPs holding slim majorities, there is a degree of self-preservation. We are often “fighting geography rather than ideology,” one backbencher tells me. “I understand people wanting to protect their own back yards.”
For now, “Keir’s hobbling on,” as a senior Labour figure puts it. “Everyone’s going to let him muddle through until May.”
“He’s got nine lives,” they add. He may need all of them come May.
