The Bank of England’s decision to hold interest rates was short on action but strong on signals that a rate cut this spring is now more likely than not.
While markets expected the nine-member monetary policy committee (MPC) to leave the base rate unchanged at 3.75%, the 5-4 vote in favour of the status quo was closer than anticipated, and the language about what happens next clear.
Governor Andrew Bailey was unequivocal that further cuts are now “likely”.
Money latest: What interest rate hold means for your money
Since the rate-cutting cycle began in August 2024, the Bank’s message has been that borrowing costs would come down “slowly and carefully”, but now it appears a question of when, not if.
While this decision keeps a toe on the brake of monetary policy, it is plainly about to lift.
The rapid fall in the Bank’s forecast for inflation, from the current 3.4% to 2% by the spring, is a key factor. So too a still-sluggish economy, evident in a fall in the forecast for GDP to 0.9% this year, and an increase in its expectation for unemployment to 5.3%.
Interest rate cuts ‘likely’ later this year – Bank of England
Bank of England rate cut to 3.75% following fall in inflation
Were it not for the upcoming budget, interest rates could have been cut
While Rachel Reeves will enjoy the credit attributed to her budget in bringing down inflation, 0.5 percentage points courtesy of cuts to energy bills, rail fares and fuel duty but concerns over more persistent inflation remain.
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The Bank also remains concerned that weaker labour demand, fuelled in part by Reeves’s increases to employer national insurance contributions and the minimum wage, is dragging down demand and household spending.
With Mr Bailey casting the decisive vote for the second meeting running, and the two blocks of four MPC members on either side of the decision unchanged, the governor’s view of the balance of those risks will be critical.
