Let’s be frank, in China the UK is not seen as a particularly big or important player.
It’s seen as a middling power at best, one that does have some advantages to offer, particularly in the service and knowledge economies, but one that has a greatly diminished global impact, particularly in the post Brexit years.
Add to that 10 years of flip-flopping on China policy, very limited outreach and increasingly hawkish attitudes both in the British parliament and the general public, and it’s hardly surprising that China didn’t roll out the full five-star treatment for Sir Keir Starmer that it does with some visiting leaders.
But despite all that, there were plenty of signs that the Chinese are happy to have a British prime minister here, not least for the optics.
Much of what was said for the cameras at least was notable for its optimism, even warmth, and there’s a sense the Chinese do see this as a moment of reset and smell genuine opportunity.
In terms of the specifics of deals that were done, the Chinese releases didn’t include masses of detail, but there was a sense that progress was made.
They spoke about a hope for further cooperation on education, healthcare and financial services and the potential for joint research into future-reaching areas like AI, biosciences, new energy and low-carbon technology.
This looks like a win for both sides: services are the UK’s most important export to China, while the country is the world leader in manufacturing green energy technologies and is on the constant hunt for expanded markets in which to sell them.
China holding firm
It is clear that some trickier things came up in the room, too, things on which China wants to control the narrative.
On Taiwan, there was a reaffirmation from the UK that its position “remains unchanged and will not change”.
Taiwan is a self-governing island that China sees as its own, and officially, most countries, including the UK, do not recognise it as an independent entity – getting nations to publicly restate this is hugely important to China.
And we know Sir Keir had promised to raise the case of Jimmy Lai, the jailed Hong Kong democracy campaigner. In the Chinese readout, it said simply the two had agreed “Hong Kong’s prosperity and stability are in the common interest of both countries” – that’s probably China speak for “it came up and we’re not budging”.
But perhaps the most interesting takeaways were the not-so-subtle hints dropped about the other major power at play in this dynamic – the United States.
“Unilateralism, protectionism, and power politics has been rampant” and that times are currently “turbulent and fluid”.
Indeed, from the Chinese perspective, Thursday mattered not because of what was achieved but because of who was watching.
Playing the long game
The optics of the British prime minister being here, revamping this relationship, at exactly the moment that Donald Trump is seriously disrupting traditional transatlantic partnerships, is exquisite for the Chinese.
Indeed, under President Xi Jinping, China has long nurtured the narrative that it is, in fact, the world’s most reliable superpower, that countries should look to it, and not the US, for stable global leadership.
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The current chaos being sown by Trump and the list of European powers knocking down China’s door very much helps with that sell.
China doesn’t expect sudden changes of allegiance, but they do think the whole situation brings opportunity.
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In his opening remarks on Thursday, Xi quoted from a Chinese Proverb written by Chairman Mao, “range far your eyes over long vistas”, the inference being that it’s best to step back, consider the bigger picture and not get too distracted by short-term gains or losses.
China always plays the long and strategic game. Be in no doubt, rekindling a relationship with this middling power is part of that.
