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‘Real possibility’ May elections could lead to UK breaking up, says Welsh leader

Sarah Taylor by Sarah Taylor
January 24, 2026
in Politics, US News, World
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‘Real possibility’ May elections could lead to UK breaking up, says Welsh leader
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The first minister of Wales has said May’s local elections could have “profound implications” and there’s “a real possibility” they could set a path towards the break up of the UK.

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Speaking on Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, Baroness Eluned Morgan agreed the country could fragment if nationalist leaders end up in power in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales.

“I think there’s a real possibility of that,” said Baroness Morgan, who is also the leader of Welsh Labour.

“I think it’s time people woke up to that as a possibility,” she added. “The elections in May could have profound implications, not just for the people of Wales and their public services, but also for the situation in the whole of the United Kingdom. The danger is real.”

Some commentators believe the 7 May vote could see Labour pushed into third place behind Reform in Scotland and Wales – where the party could lose control of the Senedd for the first time ever.

Last week, Scotland’s first minister, John Swinney, told Trevor Phillips he thought nationalist leaders could be in power in all the devolved parliaments by the end of 2026.

He said a really strong showing by the Scottish National Party (SNP) would be a green light to demand another independence referendum.

Welsh first minister accuses Westminster of treating Wales unfairly

Plaid Cymru leader was ‘turned down’ for meeting with PM, he claims

Is Labour losing Wales to Reform?

Council elections, mayoral elections, and Scottish and Welsh parliament elections are all taking place in May – and the results are seen as crucial for Sir Keir Starmer’s future.

Baroness Morgan said she agreed the prime minister would “inevitably” be under pressure if his party suffers big losses.

Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News

Read more from Sky News:
Burnham facing ultimatum over his Labour future
Part of Devon pier washed away during Storm Ingrid

Wes Streeting and Andy Burnham are among those rumoured as potential challengers and possible future prime ministers in such a scenario.

However, allies of Sir Keir said in November he wouldn’t go quietly and would fight any effort to remove him.

The full interview with Baroness Morgan will be broadcast tomorrow on Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips from 8.30am.

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