Labour’s high command is attempting to bounce Andy Burnham into a super-quick decision on a Commons by-election comeback, giving him just 24 hours to decide.
The party has published a timetable, with the whole selection process being completed next Saturday, suggesting Labour could be planning a dash to the polls as early as next month.
As the prime minister’s popularity has plunged in opinion polls, allies have urged Mr Burnham – Labour’s king of the north – to return to the Commons, potentially to seize Sir Keir Starmer’s crown.
Today he received a top endorsement when former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner said Mr Burnham should be allowed to stand in the forthcoming by-election.
But in an announcement at 5pm on Friday, the party’s ruling national executive declared that he has only until 5pm on Saturday to seek permission to stand as a by-election candidate.
That means he only has hours to make up his mind on a decision that will make or break his political career: whether to stand in the looming Gorton and Denton by-election, or wait for another opportunity.
As well as the 24-hour ultimatum facing Mr Burnham, the rest of the timetable for the by-election is brutally short. Applications opened at 5pm on Friday and will close at midnight on Sunday night.
A longlist of candidates, probably six, will be drawn up on Monday by a selection panel, shortlisting interviews will be held on Tuesday and hustings and selection will take place next Saturday.
If Mr Burnham does apply and is selected, the constituency in Greater Manchester, where Mr Burnham has been mayor since 2017, is set to host the most high-profile box-office by-election in decades.
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The by-election has been triggered by the resignation on health grounds of former minister Andrew Gwynne, who was revealed last year to have sent racist and sexist WhatsApp messages.
But although Labour is defending a majority of 13,413, and won more than 50% of the vote at the general election, Mr Burnham faces several hurdles and a “stop Burnham” campaign by allies of the prime minister.
At Labour’s conference last autumn, Mr Burnham faced a backlash from Starmer loyalists after criticising the government and claiming that he had been urged by Labour MPs to stand for leader.
As well as a rule stating that elected mayors must seek the permission of the national executive before seeking nomination as a parliamentary candidate, Mr Burnham would have to quit as mayor.
That would trigger a costly election for his successor, which Labour could lose, given the unpopularity of Sir Keir’s government and the current surge in support for Reform UK and the Green Party.
Also, if the national executive bows to pressure from a “stop Burnham” campaign, it could thwart Mr Burnham by imposing a women-only or black, Asian and minority ethnic-only shortlist.
Another risk is that even if he is Labour’s by-election candidate, he could lose. That would almost certainly mean the end of his political career, since there would be no second chance to challenge Sir Keir.
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In a by-election last year in Runcorn and Helsby, Reform UK, second in Gorton and Denton in 2024, overturned a Labour majority of 14,696 and won by a wafer-thin majority of just six votes.
If he stands in Gordon and Denton, Mr Burnham could also be opposed by George Galloway, who defeated Labour in a 2024 by-election in Rochdale, and Zack Polanski, the Green Party leader.
