A prime minister who has made U-turn after U-turn is about to make a controversial and unpopular decision on which there will be no going back.
Despite massive opposition from MPs of all parties and an alarming 11th-hour security risk, Sir Keir Starmer’s go-ahead for a Chinese super embassy is imminent.
Why now, after months of delays, missed deadlines and bureaucratic dithering? Simple. Because the PM is expected to visit China later this month.
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Last week, a number of business leaders expressed doubt to Sky News city editor Mark Kleinman that the trip will take place unless the embassy is approved.
But those tycoons Downing Street hopes will be on the plane with the PM needn’t worry.
The date of the visit has yet to be announced, but it’s expected after the gathering of the political and business elite at the World Economic Forum in Davos concludes on 23 January.
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In recent weeks, the prime minister has given some pretty clear signals that the trip is on and, therefore, that approval for the embassy is coming soon.
First, in his Guildhall speech last month, Sir Keir said: “President Trump met President Xi in October… and will visit China in April.
“Since early 2018, President Macron has visited China twice, and he’ll be there again later this week.
“German leaders have visited four times, and Chancellor Merz will be there in the New Year.
“Yet, during this same period, no British Prime Minister has visited China.
“And until I met President Xi last November, there had been no leader-level meeting at all for six years.”
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The last PM to visit China was Theresa May in February 2018. On that trip, the business delegation signed new deals with the Chinese worth £9bn. Sir Keir will be hoping for more of the same.
He did admit at the Guildhall that China “poses real national security threats to the United Kingdom”, but he said: “The absence of engagement is just staggering – a dereliction of duty.
“Because it means that, unlike our allies, we have not been standing up for our interests.”
And then he declared: “Well, no more.”
No more, indeed.
Read more:
Everything you need to know about China’s new super embassy
Secondly, in his speech to the Parliamentary Labour Party this week, reacting to “Never Here Keir” criticism, the PM spoke of a “volatile world” and said: “You have to be on the pitch. You have to be in the room.”
But the opposition to the embassy, on the former Royal Mail site next to the Tower of London and near the City of London’s financial markets, is overwhelming.
Hostility has now intensified after a new security row over secret plans for a hidden chamber in the embassy alongside Britain’s most sensitive underground cabling.
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The secret chamber, with rooms MPs have claimed will be spy dungeons, is just metres from fibre optic cables transmitting financial data to the City, and millions of emails and other messages.
“We know now that they plan to demolish the wall between the cables and their embassy,” shadow security minister Alicia Kearns protested in the Commons.
“Cables on which our economy is dependent.
“Cables carrying millions of British people’s emails and financial data, and access that would give the Chinese Communist Party a launch pad for economic warfare against our nation.”
There’s alarm from Labour MPs, too. Senior Labour backbenchers have written to Housing Secretary Steve Reed, urging the government to reject the Chinese planning application. Fat chance, though!
One of the Labour MPs, Sarah Champion, a member of the national security strategy, said in the Commons: “Multiple government agencies and government departments have raised concerns about this mega-embassy.
“Our international partners have raised concerns about it. Every security briefing I’ve had identifies China as a hostile state to the UK.”
Shadow justice secretary Robert Jenrick, as ever, reacted the most pithily to the latest security risk, revealed in leaked unredacted plans, claiming: “No one committed to our national security could possibly sign this off.”
And then he added: “But Kowtow Keir will.”
Oh dear! From “Never Here Keir” to “Kowtow Keir”. Which is worse? On China, “Kowtow-Keir”, almost certainly.
And that’s because, unlike previous retreats, climbdowns and screeching government about turns, once the embassy is approved, there can be no U-turn. It can’t be disapproved.
Even though political allies, as well as foes, disapprove of the embassy with near-unanimous hostility.
So, as he tucks into a Chinese banquet with Xi in Beijing later this month, Sir Keir will have to be prepared for his embassy decision leaving a thoroughly bad taste back in the UK.
