Donald Trump wants US oil companies to go into Venezuela, fix the oil infrastructure and boost production, but it’s unlikely to be straightforward.
The stakes are high – the US President has suggested oil will play a key role in financing his plans to “run” Venezuela until there has been a full transition following his forces’ capture of former leader Nicolas Maduro.
Mr Trump has said “it won’t cost us anything because the money coming out of the ground is very substantial”. The US, he added, would “get reimbursed for everything that we spend”.
But he is depending on private American companies to make the plan work.
“We’re going to have our very large United States oil companies, the biggest anywhere in the world, go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country,” Mr Trump told a press conference on Saturday following Maduro’s capture.
So, who are the firms he is depending on?
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There is currently only one US multinational oil company in Venezuela – Chevron. Another two, Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips, left after Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chavez, nationalised the oil industry, rendering them superfluous.
Today there appears to be plenty of potential for increasing production – while Venezuela has the world’s largest oil reserves, it accounts for just 1% of global supply.
As Chevron has already been exporting oil from Venezuela, it could be best placed to benefit from production expansion.
But the company is not prepared to talk about the potential opportunity from Maduro’s overthrow, telling Sky News it did not comment on commercial matters or speculate on future investments.
“Chevron remains focused on the safety and wellbeing of our employees, as well as the integrity of our assets. We continue to operate in full compliance with all relevant laws and regulations,” a spokesperson said.
The other two big US oil companies – Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips – have outstanding claims against the Venezuelan government for its nationalisation of oil assets.
ConocoPhillips is also giving little away on the prospects of Venezuelan projects, saying it is “monitoring developments in Venezuela and their potential implications for global energy supply and stability”.
“It would be premature to speculate on any future business activities or investments,” a spokesperson said.
But reporting from CBS News said representatives from the trio are meeting US Energy Secretary Chris Wright on Thursday.
Benefitting already
Whether or not the oil majors see a business case in investing more in Venezuela, they’re already benefiting from Maduro’s removal through higher share prices.
The value of Chevron’s shares rose 5% on Monday, with ConocoPhillips boosted and Exxon Mobil gaining more than 2%.
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Oil refiners Marathon Petroleum, Phillips 66, PBF Energy and Valero Energy have also seen their share price rises – between 3.4% and 9.3% – and shares in oil services companies Haliburton, Baker Hughes and SLB are up between 4% and 9%.
A good investment case?
And if the appeal of more crude oil reserves to feed US oil refineries and fill petrol pumps isn’t enough, Mr Trump has also offered to sweeten the deal.
While he acknowledged the significant cost companies would have to incur to develop the infrastructure needed to increase production and move oil from Venezuela, Mr Trump said on Tuesday that they’ll be “reimbursed by us or through revenue”.
But clear challenges and uncertainties remain that could complicate the picture.
Venezuela’s former vice president Delcy Rodriguez has been sworn in as the new premier with the approval of the Trump administration. But no one knows what will come next for the country’s opposition and governance.
How Venezuela will be ruled still remains to be seen. Even the specifics of oil regulation are unclear. Whether the US-imposed quarantine on Venezuelan oil – enforced initially in December to seek compliance from Caracas – stays in place is unknown.
And Venezuela is still under international sanctions, so its exports are subject to extra levies.
Challenges
A previous major buyer of Venezuelan oil, China, is currently buying less due to the US quarantine and associated increased costs.
There are also difficulties associated with extracting the more viscous kind of crude oil buried in the Venezuelan ground and the cost and time involved in updating the country’s ageing infrastructure.
Lastly, in seeking greater oil production in Venezuela Mr Trump is trying to push down oil prices. “Having a Venezuela that’s an oil producer is good for the United States because it keeps the price of oil down,” the US President has said.
But that movement in prices could dampen the appeal for the US oil companies he is relying on to get involved.
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Sky News has contacted Exxon Mobil for comment.
