It is becoming increasingly clear that Donald Trump is serious about taking Greenland from Denmark, a NATO ally, despite warnings that such a move would destroy the alliance.
The US president knows no European nation would seriously try to stop him by force because they would lose.
He is also probably gambling that Washington could get away with an Arctic land grab, as the rest of NATO needs the US more than he needs them.
Trump latest: Is Greenland next?
Of course, diplomatic charm offensives or backroom deals may yet prevail, but the uncomfortable truth when it comes to Mr Trump’s calculations is that he has a point.
Decades of overreliance by most NATO nations on American fighting power, weapons and technology mean the ability of the transatlantic alliance to defend itself without the United States (let alone counter a threat from Washington) has become dangerously compromised.
The UK, despite presenting itself as the most powerful European military in NATO, is in a particularly precarious position.
Its armed forces have benefitted hugely from the “special relationship” with the US, most notably through a unique partnership on nuclear weapons, such as the missiles and submarines that launch the warheads.
The British government says its nuclear capability – the cornerstone of defence and security policy – is sovereign. But the US relationship is clearly a vital component.
Britain’s reliance on conventional US military power is also critical.
On a battlefield, things known as enablers are key, and America provides a lot of them.
This includes intelligence feeds from satellites to find and track targets, electronic warfare capabilities to protect aircraft, warships and tanks from enemy attack, and logistical supplies – vital for any military to be able to replenish stores or transport troops and supplies.
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NATO alliance assumes it will operate alongside US in war
In any wartime scenario, the UK assumes it will be operating alongside the US, with its far larger and better-equipped army, navy and air force.
This has allowed successive British governments over the years to scrimp on expensive additional “enabling” capabilities in the belief that America would always be there.
But what if it is not?
The same question is true for the rest of the NATO alliance.
Most other member states similarly rely on US enablers to help their troops be as effective as possible, especially on the modern battlefield.
Then there is all the American kit bought and operated by British and other NATO armed forces, such as Chinook helicopters, F-35 fast jets and P-8 maritime patrol aircraft.
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NATO tries to do more in anticipation of US soldiers doing less
Plans drawn up by the Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) – NATO’s top military commander and a role that has so far always been held by an American officer – to defend allied territory rely on contributions from all 32 member states.
However, the US still has a dominant role even as its European allies and Canada try to do more in anticipation of American soldiers being told to do a lot less.
And that is the reality now, before any mention of Greenland.
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Greenland threats should be final wake-up call for UK, Europe and Canada
In the wake of Mr Trump’s strikes on Venezuela and capture of its president, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen warned that an attack by the US on a NATO ally – namely Greenland – would spell the end of the alliance and “post-Second World War security”.
But, as the biggest losers from such a breakdown in security apparatus would be the rest of NATO, such a prospect is hardly going to deter America’s commander-in-chief.
Instead, it should be the final wake-up call for the UK, Europe and Canada never to allow themselves to slide into such a position of profound weakness again.
