The number of Russian drone launches against Ukraine in the first 10 months of this year was 303% higher than in the whole of 2024, according to data from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Russia’s use of Shahed-type suicide drones in Ukraine has surged this year.
Russia has launched over 44,000 Shahed and Shahed variant drones, which is more than quadruple 2024’s launches, according to CSIS data.
Around 64% of those were destroyed, down from 68% in 2024 – as the scale of attacks stretches Ukraine’s air defences.
Despite an exponential increase in launches, Ukraine is managing to intercept a large proportion of the Shahed-type drones.
Sky News international correspondent John Sparks went to eastern Ukraine to see Ukrainian soldiers fight drones with drones, intercepting Russian Shaheds before they could attack.
Civilians face rising drone threat
But the more drones that Russia sends, the harder it is for Ukrainian air defences to intercept them all.
And when so-called ‘suicide drones’ get through, the damage they do is considerable, and the loss of life can be high.
Figures from the UN human rights monitoring mission in Ukraine show the devastating civilian toll of Russia’s missile and drone attacks in Ukraine this year.
From January to September 2025, at least 494 civilians were killed by missiles and suicide drones, like the Shahed.
The UN introduced the missiles and loitering munitions tracking in 2025, so historical data comparison is not possible.
The figures show how Russia’s expanded drone campaign has intensified the pressure on Ukraine’s defences, and the toll is increasingly measured in civilian lives.
Adapt and attack
Russia began receiving shipments of Shahed drones from Iran following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and began domestic production of the drones, designating them the ‘Geran-1’ (Shahed-131) and ‘Geran-2’ (Shahed-136).
Rick Rickard and Charlie Valentine, explosive ordinance specialists at EODynamics, explain that Russia continuously adapts the Shahed design.
“Geran 2 is a copy, but they’ve modified it with the various different warheads,” Mr Rickard told Sky News. “Russia are fitting the options they have created to the specific strike.”
Initially, Shahed drones used a high-explosive warhead weighing approximately 50kg but following domestic production beginning in Russia 90kg warheads have been added.
Mr Rickard explains a common variant of warhead used in Shahed drones is fragmentation high explosive, aiming to maximise shrapnel damage against personnel.
Thermobaric warheads, designed for a maximum blast effect against buildings and fortified positions, have also been used.
The development of domestic drone production lines means Russia can adapt its drone capability relatively easily and cheaply.
Yasir Atalan, data fellow at CSIS Futures Lab, which tracks the drone launches, told Sky News: “It’s obvious that Russia has been unleashing mass Shahed launches in the last couple of months… that means there is a big increase in the production and launch capacity.”
In July, Russian state media broadcast footage from a Shahed production plant in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone (SEZ) of the Tatarstan region of Russia.
The Alabuga plant’s reported near-term goal is to make 25,000 drones per year.
Estimates from the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine in August suggested that Russia planned to produce 79,000 Shahed-type drones in 2025.
The cost of drone interception
The massive drone attacks are designed to wear Ukrainian defences and civilians down, Mr Atalan explains.
“You can hit them [Shaheds], intercept them, but the goal of the attacker is to force the defender to invest a lot of time and effort to intercept them,” Mr Atalan says.
In the past, Ukraine has used surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) to intercept Russian drones.
But that is not cost effective – SAMs can cost over several hundred thousand dollars to make – whereas a Shahed or its variants cost an estimated $20,000-$50,000 to build, according to CSIS.
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
“Cost effectiveness and quantity is a quality of its own,” Mr Valentine explains. Success in drone conflict is about “who can adapt quickest and for the most economically viable calculation”.
And as Sky News international correspondent John Sparks witnessed in the east of the country, Ukrainian soldiers are evening the cost ratio, fighting drones with drones.
Additional reporting by Sam Doak, OSINT producer.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
