Once again, the SNP looks likely to be the largest party at the Scottish Parliament next year.
Not because it has suddenly become untarnished or wildly more popular, but largely because the unionist vote is fragmented, with Reform taking centre stage and Labour losing momentum.
John Swinney’s party has endured everything a government would normally dread in recent years, from a police fraud investigation, bitter rows over gender reform, and the worst drug-death rate in Europe.
Yet, they could enter their third decade in power next May. How? It appears it will not be through a major resurgence in passion for the party or dazzling new ideas, but because their rivals have failed to seize the moment.
Swinney’s administration in Edinburgh has all the baggage of a party in power for 18 years. There are questions over their record on health, education, and the economy. The independence cause has drifted into the background with no clear path to a second vote.
But crucially, the SNP retains something its opponents lack, which is a loyal, unshakable base. They are itchy for independence, but there is no other serious, big-time contender to attach themselves to.
For many Scots, voting SNP is still an expression of identity as much as policy. That unbreakable bond has carried the party through the scandals that would have sunk others.
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It appears Scottish Labour, by contrast, has squandered its best opening in a decade.
This time last year, party leader Anas Sarwar was pretty much measuring the carpets at Bute House, the official residence of the First Minister.
Sarwar was buoyed by Labour’s momentum across the UK. He was riding on their wave. But that has evaporated amid Sir Keir Starmer’s chaotic first year in Downing Street, including the winter fuel payment fiasco.
A series of avoidable blunders has damaged Labour’s credibility – and Sarwar’s prospects by association.
Reform’s rise adds to Labour’s troubles. Every vote for Nigel Farage chips away at the unionist vote in Scotland, leaving Labour and the Conservatives to fight among themselves.
Under Holyrood’s electoral system, that split could again prove decisive.
Recent polling has suggested Reform could become Holyrood’s official opposition, with Labour retaining its third place. A humiliating bronze medal for Sarwar and Co.
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Ahead of this weekend’s SNP conference in Aberdeen, Swinney told Sky News the politics swirling around Farage is “repulsive”.
I pushed him on whether that means, by extension, Reform’s growing Scottish voters are also “repulsive”.
He responded that “no amount of prompting will get me to talk about fellow members of the public in Scotland like that”.
Reform and the SNP are polar opposites. The real story is that unless Labour can rebuild trust north of the border, Swinney won’t need to do much to stay in power.
He just needs his opponents to keep tripping over their own feet.
