Donald Trump’s assertion that Ukraine can retake all of its territory from Russia’s “paper tiger” military was a stunning change in rhetoric.
After praising Volodymyr Zelenskyy as a “brave man” who is “putting up one hell of a fight”, the US president said he thinks Ukraine can liberate all its territory.
“I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form,” he wrote on Truth Social.
Here, Sky News looks at the current state of the battlefield – and where Russian and Ukrainian troops are advancing.
UN latest: Trump rages over ‘sinister’ escalator incident
How much territory does Russia currently control?
Russia currently occupies around 19% of Ukraine, including Crimea which it has held since 2014.
Moscow has been primarily focused on four oblasts (regions) of Ukraine – Luhansk and Donetsk (the Donbas), Zaporizhzhia and Kherson – but recent efforts in the northeast have suggested additional targets.
Vladimir Putin’s forces control almost all of Luhansk, but about 30% of the others remain in Ukrainian hands and are fiercely contested.
Despite having a huge numerical advantage, Russia has largely failed to make significant progress since the early days of the full-scale invasion.
Its forces have advanced consistently but slowly, and at huge cost. Key cities in the Donbas remain under Ukrainian control despite facing attack for more than a decade.
Can Ukraine turn the tide at Pokrovsk?
Some of the most brutal fighting is in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, an industrial heartland and also the location of some crucial strategic defences.
One key city is Pokrovsk, a vital road and rail hub that was once home to around 60,000 people which has been enduring months of relentless assaults by Russian forces.
Much of the city has been encircled by Kremlin troops, who are exerting pressure to try and squeeze defenders out. There have been suggestions that Pokrovsk would fall soon, despite its staunch resistance for so long.
There have been reports that Russian forces control all supply routes into the city, making it very difficult for to Ukraine resupply its troops there.
However, recent reports of a Ukrainian counteroffensive in that part of the frontline have challenged some of the assumptions about Pokrovsk, though it’s unclear if it will be enough to change the overall situation.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
‘Marching forward’
“Our warriors are marching forward,” the head of Ukraine’s armed forces Oleksandr Syrskyi said of the Pokrovsk front on Monday.
Speaking last week, President Zelenskyy said the Ukrainian army is “destroying” Russian forces around Pokrovsk and nearby Dobropillia and has liberated 160 square kilometres since the start of the counteroffensive.
‘The fortress belt’ that has held Russia back for a decade
Elsewhere in the Donbas, Russian forces continue to push for Ukraine’s ‘fortress belt’: a network of four cities including Kramatorsk and Sloviansk that has held back Russian forces for 11 years.
Shortages of troops, supplies and chaotic management are making it increasingly hard to resist Russia’s relentless pressure, however Kremlin troops have yet to achieve significant progress towards any of the cities.
Colonel Pavlo Yurchuk, whose troops are defending a small city at the northern end of the fortress belt, said he’s confident Russia’s latest attempt to push through there won’t work.
“From a military point of view it looks correct – on the map it looks neat – but after nearly three-and-a-half years of war we all know that such deep manoeuvres and wide flanking operations are not Russia’s forte,” he told the Associated Press.
Battles in the northeast
Meanwhile, Russian forces have advanced near Kupiansk in northeast Ukraine, not far from the fortress city of Kharkiv, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) thinktank said last week.
Like other targets along the Ukrainian frontline, Kupiansk is a key transport and logistics hub, being the location at which several major rail lines converge.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Russia’s ministry of defence has now publicly acknowledged Russia’s intent to advance into Kharkiv region, despite it not being one of the four that Moscow has claimed in the past.
It claimed in a social media post on Tuesday that its forces had partially enveloped Ukrainian defenders in Kupiansk, but this was challenged by the ISW thinktank, which said it had not seen geolocated evidence.
The Russian defence ministry claimed its forces intend to leverage the seizure of Kupiansk to attack further into the region in several directions simultaneously, including towards Chuhuiv and Izium and towards Vovchansk.
The nuclear power plant – and Crimea
In the south, it’s likely that Ukraine would be keen to regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which has been under Russian control since March 2022.
Recapturing it would contribute significantly to Ukraine’s power needs.
Further towards the coast, the cities of Mariupol and Melitopol remain in Russian hands. Beyond them, the crucial Crimea peninsula – linked to Russia by the controversial Kerch Bridge – has been under Russian control for a decade.
The city of Kherson, which was liberated by Ukraine in 2022 after initially falling to Russia in the early days of the full-scale invasion, is in the part of Kherson region that Ukraine controls.
It looks across the Dnipro river at territory controlled by Russia, though Ukraine has managed to establish and maintain a small beachhead on the other side despite heavy fire from Kremlin troops.
