For a prime minister who has perhaps had his hardest two weeks in office, Donald Trump became the unlikely elixir of a tough political run.
It’s not a sentence I imagined writing in the run-up to this state visit – particularly when the UK ambassador to the US, Peter Mandelson, was sacked from his post but days ago – but this state visit will go down as a success for a PM in dire need of a win.
From the pomp and pageantry of the first day, to the hard business at Chequers, every detail was carefully choreographed to appeal to the president – including a stay in Windsor Castle, and a bagpipe chorus welcoming him (in a nod to his Scottish heritage) into Sir Keir Starmer‘s country retreat.
Starmer went all out to flex all the soft power he could deploy to garner some hard results.
There were real wins. The showstopper US-UK tech partnership was hailed by both sides as a new phase in the special relationship, as Trump gathered some of the world’s biggest tech billionaires – Nvidia chief Jensen Huang and Apple’s Tim Cook – to attend the signing of the deal at Chequers.
Number 10 added up a series of planned commercial decisions to tout the prospect of £150bn of inward investment.
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How that shakes down remains to be seen, but it undoubtedly gave the PM a positive story to sell ahead of the November budget, as the government spoke of thousands of tech and nuclear jobs being created in red wall seats like Hartlepool and Blythe in Northumberland.
A prime minister doing business on behalf of hard-working Britons is the message No 10 wants you to take away from all of it. Because for a Labour government on the ropes, being able to talk about investment and new jobs in red wall towns is a story Sir Keir really needs to tell.
This is a PM who desperately needs to persuade voters he and Chancellor Rachel Reeves can deliver a real growth strategy ahead of the budget. You could see it on the face of the PM as he hailed the new tech deal and massive investment into the UK.
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No 10 figures tell me Starmer’s personal relationship with Trump helped created “bigger than expected deals”.
Another long-term ally of the PM told me: “Today [the prime minister] got to remind people what he’s in it for, and what he’s good at.”
Beyond the business, Sir Keir also found a way to disagree agreeably with the president.
On the matter of the UK’s imminent decision to recognise the Palestine state, the president was open that this was an area of disagreement, but didn’t berate Sir Keir over it.
Explainer: What does recognising a Palestinian state mean?
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Not rocking the boats
There was a bit of a ripple at the news conference when Trump said he’d told Sir Keir he should “call out the military” to stop illegal migration into Britain, but these were two leaders who clearly had genuine regard and respect for each other, and for the lesser partner in the relationship – the UK – that really is a boon.
But in the main, Trump didn’t want to rock the boat.
When I asked him, as the final question of the news conference, whether he had sympathy for Lord Mandelson for being sacked over his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein, the president, who also has an historic connection, totally swerved the question, saying – despite having Lord Mandelson in the Oval Office several times – he “didn’t know him”.
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‘Extraneous shocks’
For a firebrand president, it was an overt attempt to avoid a headline. For the Starmer team, this state visit was a bit – dare I say it, after all the resets – of an attempt to get the government back on track after a torrid start to the new term.
There is a view in Downing Street that the PM was hit by two “extraneous shocks” – Angela Rayner‘s tax affairs and Mandelson’s emails in which he backed Epstein after his conviction – which were out of No 10’s control.
Listen: The fall and rise and fall (again) of Peter Mandelson
This state visit was a moment to get the government back on track with momentum going into the Labour Party conference later this month.
It will no doubt be a huge confidence boost to a battered prime minister who will perhaps find a renewed sense of purpose from being instrumental in landing real wins for the British people beyond the platitudes of the “special relationship”.
In a way, it’s curious for me that the state visit of Trump, which I remember as a moment of jeopardy (see Theresa May in 2019), has been a moment of respite and validation for the prime minister.
It is perhaps a reflection that Sir Keir has found it easier to navigate the global stage since winning power than the domestic one.
He faces big challenges into the autumn, not least turning up at the party conference to address a Labour membership out of sorts with their leader.
Then comes the budget, with all the pain of the economic outlook and prospects of tax rises.
There is the pressure over small boats and the sluggish performance in the polls, too.
But there is also the much-needed lift of a successful state visit, touting billions of investment and thousands of new jobs which the prime minister will grab as he looks for momentum – as he eyes the long journey ahead.
