France is facing the possibility of having its fifth prime minister in less than two years, an economic crisis and the threat of further civil unrest if a parliamentary deadlock isn’t resolved in the coming days.
French MPs will debate a vote of no confidence in the country’s current prime minister, Francois Bayrou, on Monday afternoon.
If, as expected, he loses, it will deepen the country’s economic and political malaise and could even put the future of Emmanuel Macron’s presidency in doubt.
Mr Bayrou, a 74-year-old political veteran only in office since December, has proposed a drastic budget making around £40bn in savings, including cutting two of the country’s annual public holidays.
This has been met by considerable opposition and even anger among the French public, even though Mr Bayrou and economists in Europe have warned that the EU’s second-largest economy faces a Greek-style debt crisis if it doesn’t act urgently.
Mr Bayrou called the unexpected confidence vote last month, hoping to boost his legitimacy and get his highly controversial economic package passed.
The Socialist Party is expected to join forces with its natural enemies in the far-right National Rally to oppose the prime minister.
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Celine Thiebault-Martinez, a Socialist Party MP, said Mr Bayrou’s budget “once again penalises the most vulnerable, working-class families and ordinary workers”.
Her party’s alternative budget would make half the savings Mr Bayrou wants and would pay back the huge state debt over a longer period.
Ms Thiebault-Martinez doesn’t believe they can be persuaded to back the prime minister on Monday.
“They wave the IMF flag, saying we’ll soon be under supervision like Greece once was, but those are false arguments; they’re made to scare.”
But the figures don’t support her opinion.
France hasn’t balanced a budget since 1974. Its debt to GDP ratio is now the third highest in Europe, only better than Greece and Italy, and the country spends more servicing its debt every year than it does on either defence or education.
National Rally, the far-right party of Marine Le Pen rising in national polls, favours holding fresh parliamentary elections, confident they will increase their share of MPs in the Assembly, putting them into a position of greater power.
They see Monday’s vote as a chance to punish Mr Macron.
National Rally MP Gaetan Dussaussaye said “for eight years now [since Mr Macron was elected] it’s always been the same recipe: More rules, more taxes, preventing the French economy from working and moving forward”.
But the far-right party is vague when asked what its alternative plan to reform the country’s economy would be.
“What we want is a complete change in how the economy is managed in France. That means giving the power back to the French people to decide,” he said.
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Assuming Mr Bayrou loses Monday’s vote and the government falls, he will stay in office temporarily while the president works out what to do next.
Mr Macron will be faced with only difficult choices; call new elections to try to re-establish a majority, appoint yet another new prime minister in the hope they can succeed where the previous four have failed, or even stand down himself, something he has repeatedly ruled out despite growing calls for him to go.
Nicolas Gaudin, owner of CMO, a company making parts for the car and aviation industry, based in National Rally’s northern France heartland, said he is torn.
He wants – and needs – some economic certainty and without immediate reforms, his company could go bust by the end of the year, but for him, Mr Bayrou’s policies undermine the social considerations that “make France a wonderful country”.
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He said: “Our clients, major companies in the aeronautics and automotive industries, are cutting their maintenance and industrialisation costs and that directly impacts our requests and orders.
“We have no visibility at the moment. Back in June, we told ourselves that things would pick up in September, but here we are in September, and we still don’t have any more information.”
For his small workforce on the factory floor, it’s more straightforward – they feel long abandoned by the traditional political classes.
Alexandre Bocquet said the whole political system “needs redoing from scratch”
“We don’t feel represented. When it comes to purchasing power or work, we feel completely abandoned,” he adds.
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It’s this sentiment that has made Le Pen’s National Rally party the favourite to win the presidency at the next elections in 2027, if not sooner.
Many hold Mr Macron responsible for the crisis after he called snap elections in June 2024 which led to a hung parliament and a deeply fractured lower chamber unable to agree on much.
A day of civil action has been called for next Wednesday.
It’s unclear how widespread it will be, but organisers are hoping businesses will shut down and major roads blocked.
