This is the moment people across the Middle East have feared but expected for years.
The question now… what happens next?
Israel has long regarded Iran’s nuclear ambitions to be an existential threat, whatever the ayatollahs have said about their peaceful intentions.
Israel-Iran live: Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear sites
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Iranian leaders have talked of wiping Israel off the face of the Earth, and that threat has been taken at face value by Israelis. Benjamin Netanyahu has always said that ambition can never be combined with the means to fulfil it. He clearly thinks this is the time to act.
Having started this effort to eradicate that threat, Israel can be expected to try to finish it if it can and if it is allowed to do so by the US.
Equally, Iran will do what it can to stop Israel’s attacks.
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It is a weakened regime and weak regimes cannot afford to look weaker.
Its retaliation may involve attacks not just on Israeli and US assets but allies and oil installations in the Persian Gulf.
Enough tankers being sunk or oil refineries going up in smoke could have an immediate impact on the global economy and that, Iranians might hope, will persuade America to call time on Israel’s actions.
Read more:
Watch: Iran and Israel in major conflict
Israel attacks Iran and declares emergency
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So expect the following: Israel continues striking Iran; Iran hits back with all it can; America is forced to help defend Israel; Iran hits both Israel, the US and possibly US allies.
That is the predictable bit.
Wars follow the laws of unintended consequences. At any point in that escalation, unexpected events could lead to greater escalation.
Brace yourself, the coming days could go in a number of directions. If the Persian Gulf becomes the battlefield, we will all feel the consequences.
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