The German chancellor will hold his first face-to-face meeting with President Trump later.
On the agenda are discussions around the war in Ukraine, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and tariffs.
It’s understood Donald Trump and Friedrich Merz will have a working lunch and early afternoon meeting before potentially holding a news conference.
The question is, will Mr Merz emerge smiling like Sir Keir Starmer, or be berated like [Ukrainian President] Volodymyr Zelenskyy?
There’s no doubt the leader of Europe’s largest economy has a lot to discuss with Mr Trump, the head of Germany’s most important trading partner.
Berlin was trying to recover from two years of recession, only to be hit by the Trump administration’s 25% tariffs on vehicles and the new 50% tariff on steel and aluminium.
The president’s threat of a 50% tariff on all European goods is also still looming for July unless a deal with Brussels is struck.
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In the past, the US leader hasn’t minced his words, calling the Germans “very bad” as he bemoaned “the millions of cars they sell to the US”.
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While the EU is leading negotiations on tariffs, Mr Merz knows he must be careful not to anger Mr Trump.
The president has been clear that he believes Europe has been ripping America off and a misstep could reinforce this view, potentially making it harder to agree a deal.
Germany’s reliance on the US for defence has also triggered Donald Trump in the past.
During his first term, he tweeted that Germany “owes vast sums of money to NATO and the United States must be paid more for the powerful, and very expensive, defence it provides to Germany”.
However, Mr Merz will be hoping to avoid a fight over this after Germany said it would boost defence spending and the chancellor vowed to create the strongest army in Europe.
This, plus his efforts to crackdown on illegal migration, may help to counter views that German leadership is weak.
While the Germans are focused on a productive meeting, Mr Merz’s past criticism of the US could come back to haunt him.
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Following a 10-day period of intense criticism of Europe and Ukraine by the Trump administration in February, the chancellor warned that Europe could no longer rely on Washington.
Merz mimicked the US president
Referring to the president’s assertion that European security was no longer America’s primary focus – a stunning reversal of decades of US foreign policy – he said it was clear that “the Americans, at least this part of the Americans, this administration, are largely indifferent to the fate of Europe”.
More recently, when asked about his first phone call with Mr Trump, he mimicked the president, highlighting how often he uses the word “great”.
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Ahead of Thursday’s meeting, a spokesperson for the German government played down concerns of a clash, saying the pair had spoken several times on the phone and that the chancellor was well prepared.
It’s understood he had a call with the French president in the lead-up.
Perhaps Emmanuel Macron was able to offer some advice after he and Mr Trump rekindled their first-term bromance during their White House encounter in February.
We have been told the chancellor will also be bringing a gift for the president.
King’s invitation went down well
There’s no doubt that when Mr Starmer produced an invitation to the UK from King Charles, it boosted the mood in the Oval Office during his first visit.
From the moment the embossed letter was handed over, the atmosphere became more relaxed.
The spokesperson wouldn’t reveal what Mr Merz is bringing, clearly determined to maintain the suspense.
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It could potentially be something from Rhineland-Palatinate, the region in southwest Germany’s wine country where Donald Trump’s paternal grandparents were born.
The chancellor knows the area well, having completed his military service there in the 1970s, and has already invited the president to visit his ancestral home.
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Germans appear confident
Whatever it is, the Germans seem confident the meeting between the two leaders will be a success, underlining the German leader’s firm belief in the transatlantic relationship and his experience holding top-level meetings with politicians.
In reality, however much he prepares, his team knows he must expect the unexpected.
It could be that vice president JD Vance decides to revisit his blistering attack on Europe, which left the audience at the Munich Security Conference speechless, earlier this year.
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Or, perhaps the Trump administration will lash out again about the far-right Alternative for Germany party being classified as right-wing extremists by Germany’s domestic intelligence service; the potential pitfalls are many.
What will happen is anyone’s guess and the uncertainty ensures this meeting of political heavyweights will be a fascinating watch.
