Sir Keir Starmer used the opulent surroundings of London’s Lancaster House to declare with certainty that this is a “landmark deal” that will grow the British economy and put money in people’s pockets.
It is evidence, the prime minister said, of Britain back on the world stage. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and European Council president Antonio Costa addressed him as “dear Keir”. Times have changed.
Politics latest: Minister claims UK-EU deal could add £90bn to British economy
Symbolically – nearly a decade after Brexit and all the battles and feuds which followed – it is a big moment to see a prime minister warming up relations with the EU.
But when you read the nine-page Cooperation Agreement, it is very clear this is just the starter, not the full meal; the opening scene rather than the final curtain. In other words, most of what the government says are negotiated wins are in fact TBC.
The deal covers agri-food; fishing, defence, energy and passport checks. The government claims it will add nearly £9bn (around 0.3% of GDP) to the British economy by 2040.
A security and defence partnership has been struck; trumpeted as a way UK defence firms can access the EU’s £150bn procurement fund. The text only says the UK and EU “should swiftly explore the possibilities”, of doing so. Starmer said it would “open the door” for UK firms to benefit, but the UK is not inside the door yet.
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On trade, the UK government sees the big wins economically – but there are costs and trade-offs. The food deal – or to give it its full name the sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) agreement – would eliminate some of the barriers to trade erected during Brexit.
Paperwork has undoubtedly held up exports, and some products, such as sausages, other cold meats and shellfish, cannot be sold to the EU. The idea is this red tape would be swept away – which has been welcomed by retailers, supermarkets and food processors, who say it will cut prices at the tills.
But this comes with conditions – admin costs; and the need to align with EU rules and standards now and into the future.
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Those rules are set by member states, not the UK, and overseen by the European Court of Justice. All of the red lines of the past. Brexiteers are calling it a “betrayal” and the UK going back to being a “rule taker”. The specifics would need legislation to go through parliament, so more votes loom.
The biggest trade-off is on fishing, a key sticking point in the negotiations from countries such as France. This deal enables EU member states to fish in our water for another 12 years beyond the current deal – until 2038.
The government points out that the food deal is indefinite, and the fishing rights have a time limit. But what was agreed was three times longer, it is claimed, than the four years the government had hoped for.
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The suggestion that holidaymakers could avoid “huge queues” at airports through an agreement for British travellers to use e-Gates at European airports.
The agreement states that there will be “no legal barriers to eGate use for British nationals travelling to and from member states” – but nothing firmer. It’s up to member states to implement.
A youth mobility scheme – which the government has now branded a “youth experience scheme”, will happen, despite months of ministers denying one was on the cards.
The terms must be mutually agreed, and the final numbers, how the cap will apply and the time limits are yet to be worked out.
Starmer is gambling that – based on polling showing most Brexit voters feel the original deal negotiated by Boris Johnson has failed – voters will accept the trade-offs.
He said it was time to move away from the “stale” arguments of the past and move on. It’s notable that while Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has slammed Starmer’s deal as a “sell out”, she concedes it needs to be looked at again.
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Given the threat from Reform, the prime minister has been careful to steer very clear of free movement and any concession on student fees. But those questions will come back as the details are hammered out.
Whether on food prices or airports, the negotiations could continue for weeks, months or years. There may be many more EU summits for this and subsequent governments.
It may not be the end of the Brexit wrangling – as the prime minister hopes – but the start of a new phase in which costs, caps and quotas are discussed regularly, and seized on by his political opponents.
The gains are some way off, given that the Office for Budget Responsibility estimated the hit of Brexit to the economy (4%) to be far larger.
This is a significant move closer to the EU at a time when the Ukraine war and Donald Trump’s diplomacy are shaking up the old order. But for a big concession, whether this can be sold to voters as a good deal is a question for further down the line.
