This is a significant moment in this war.
It strengthens ties between Ukraine and the US which have been fraying to the point of disintegration.
But will it increase the chances of a diplomatic breakthrough to find peace? Possibly not. Without that, this agreement will have changed little in this pointless grinding war.
But it does give Donald Trump a personal political investment in a conflict he has always seemed to have regarded as someone else’s fault, someone else’s problem and a money pit for US resources.
On the face of it, it is a purely economic agreement.
Ukraine had wanted to tie in explicit guarantees of continuing US military support. The details are scant but they appear to be absent.
But reaching agreement is a considerable diplomatic achievement on both sides.
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The negotiations have been painful.
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The idea of a minerals deal was initially proposed by President Zelenskyy but at times he must have regretted it as acrimonious talks threatened to torpedo US support for Ukraine entirely.
It was meant to have been signed in February before the infamous Zelenskyy-Trump-Vance bust up in the Oval Office.
At one point it looked like an act of extortion. Like gangsters running a protection racket, the US seemed to be demanding all Ukraine’s mineral wealth in return for continued support.
But the terms now look less onerous. Most importantly it seems the Trump administration is not asking retrospectively for the return of billions given by the Biden administration, by means of this minerals extraction agreement.
The turning point in negotiations appears to have been the meeting engineered between Mr Trump and Mr Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the Pope’s funeral in Rome on Saturday. Mr Zelenskyy appears to have persuaded Mr Trump it was a deal worth signing.
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What the White House has said about minerals deal
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The terms are vague and not detailed but the agreement appears to be more of a long term proposal for joint cooperation over Ukraine’s economic future.
America will invest in exploiting Ukraine’s mineral wealth but also share the profits years down the line.
The signing comes at a crucial time for Ukraine. Its forces are losing ground on the battlefield. And Mr Trump’s efforts to broker peace look decidedly one-sided against them.
Falling in line on this deal was essential for Ukrainians. Whether it saves them from President Trump walking away and ending military support for them anyway, is by no means certain.
