Can Reform UK turn votes into seats – and from there into power? How far do the Tories have to fall? How unpopular is Labour now that it’s in government? We find out on local election day on 1 May.
Next Thursday will see three types of elections
A total of 23 councils are up for grabs – most in places we once called Tory shires, until last year’s general election.
This includes 14 county councils, all but two of which have been Conservative-controlled, as well as eight unitary authorities, all but one of which are Tory.
Then finally, there is Doncaster council, a Labour-held borough. Kemi Badenoch claims they could lose all the councils they are contesting, setting expectations as low as possible.
Then there are mayoral elections – four of them powerful metro mayors for the combined authorities, two of which are being elected for the first time. That’s on top of two directly elected borough mayors.
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Thirdly, there’s a by-election triggered after the Labour MP Mike Amesbury resigned in March. He was found guilty of assault after being filmed repeatedly punching a man late at night.
For the council elections, this is what happened in 2021 when these councils were last up. The baseline we’ll measure the results against.
Notice the Tories are defending so many, so they’re the ones facing the biggest losses – “well into the hundreds”, says Sky News’ election analyst Michael Thrasher. But look at Reform too – it barely existed back in 2021, so that’s on zero.
This is why this set of elections is going to be so interesting. 2021, when these councils were last up, the Tories were riding high – their best night for 13 years on the National Equivalent Vote, which works out the national picture based on the local results. Labour did so badly Sir Keir Starmer considered resigning.
Since then, the Tories have plummeted – halved in vote share if you look at polls. Labour down too. Lib Dems the same and Greens strong in places.
But jockeying for joint first place: Reform UK – who are putting up the most candidates of any party – now contesting 99% of the seats.
However, as Reform leader Nigel Farage knows only too well, votes don’t always mean seats. Look at this snapshot from the past – 2013. The same set of elections. Labour got 21% of the votes and 21% of the seats. But Farage’s UKIP got 21% of the vote and 8% of the seats.
Then there are the mayors. Labour won all four that were contested last time, although one stepped down. Could Reform get its first taste of power in Lincolnshire?
Or could it even be the Runcorn by-election? A massive long-shot – it’s Labour’s 49th safest seat. But will this northwest seat be the most important moment of the night? Labour insiders say they’re still hopeful.
There are signs our politics could be changing profoundly – 1 May could point to a new future.
