Vladimir Putin will break any peace agreement with Ukraine that is not “defended” by an international coalition of forces, the British prime minister has said.
Sir Keir Starmer was talking on Thursday as he visited a UK base to meet a group of senior military officers from more than 30 nations tasked with turning a political desire to support Kyiv into an actionable plan to help protect the country from land, sea and air in the event of a ceasefire.
But, with Donald Trump pushing hard for Russia and Ukraine to stop fighting now, there are concerns among analysts that the “coalition of the willing” – led by the UK and France – will be overtaken by events, with peace declared before it has time to get its act together.
In a sign of the challenge, the southern Ukrainian city of Odesa was struck on Thursday night by what its governor described as a “massive” Russian drone attack even as the US president talked up the prospects for peace.
US negotiators are set to meet separately with Ukrainian and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia on Monday to try to make progress on a ceasefire.
Mr Trump also claimed he was on the brink of signing an economic deal with Ukraine – something that has been trailed for weeks as a key step in strengthening US-Ukraine relations and locking in Washington’s support for Kyiv’s future, but has yet to materialise.
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Clearly alive to the urgency to act, Sir Keir greeted the group of visiting military planners at the UK’s Permanent Joint Headquarters at Northwood, on the edge of London.
They gathered around a large map of Ukraine spread out across a table.
“Now is the time to be doing this,” the prime minister told the officers from a range of European and other allied countries, including Turkey, the Netherlands and Canada. Ukrainian officers were also present as well as NATO officials.
“We don’t know what the outcome of any [peace] talks is going to be, but we do know that if there is a deal, it’s important to have done the preparation beforehand.”
The size and shape of what Western officials have described as a “reassurance force” for Ukraine are unclear – so too what kind of military headquarters would command it.
Initial briefings on the concept suggested it could involve thousands of troops deployed to cities and to protect critical infrastructure such as nuclear power stations, but kept back from frontline areas, while Royal Air Force warplanes and other countries’ jets would protect Ukraine’s skies, and various navies, including the Royal Navy, would help secure the sea.
Yet, without US support, the European offer, even with backing from other aligned nations such as Canada, would not act as much of a deterrence to Russia.
And that is if the coalition is ready to deploy in time for any ceasefire.
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The British prime minister said peace would only endure if “it is a defended deal”.
He offered a sense of what the military planners have been tasked with delivering after the political leaders of all the countries involved agreed to work together to help Ukraine.
“What’s happening here is turning that political intention into reality – the concept into plans, whether that’s in relation to what might happen at sea or air or defending borders,” Sir Keir said.
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“But it is vitally important we do that work because we know one thing for certain, which is a deal without anything behind it is something that Putin will breach.
“We know that because it’s happened before. And I’m absolutely clear in my mind it will happen again.”
