Donald Trump has promised peace talks and teased the prospect of ending the war in Ukraine but, in the background, there are potential complications.
Here’s what Sky News’ experts think about what America’s new military policy and these planned negotiations could mean for Russia, the US, and Ukraine – along with its aspirations to join its European allies in NATO.
A short-term win that risks rewarding Putin
by Mark Stone, US correspondent
In the Oval Office, President Trump refused to say that Ukraine is an equal member of the negotiation with Russia to end the war. That refusal marks the end of a remarkable day.
I think what we have seen over the day, from an American perspective, is the confirmation of a profound shift in American influence, power and footprint in Europe. A ground-shifting moment.
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The post-WWII principle of American leadership, of America as the leading protector of Western principles and Western territory, seems to have been deeply eroded, maybe abandoned.
For the first time, America has said that its priorities prevent it from being focused on Europe.
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The call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin is the first by a US president since Biden spoke to Putin in December 2021 – before the invasion.
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President Trump was effusive in how he framed the call which was an hour and a half long – it was positive and we’re told he sees Russia as a ‘great competitor and at times an adversary’.
We don’t know what President Trump said to President Putin, what he committed to him, what he didn’t. The US defence secretary certainly seems to have conceded some key bargaining chips to Russia – land, no NATO membership or protection for Ukraine.
Trump’s mission has been to stop the fighting. He might do that – a big short-term win for him to trumpet to the American people.
The concern in Europe is that it’s a short-term win; that it will reward Putin; that America’s retreat will weaken Europe and maybe leave Putin to fight another day.
Putin’s red lines on NATO expansion haven’t shifted
by Ivor Bennett, Moscow correspondent
We knew there’d be contact between the two leaders at some point but this is still a hugely significant moment.
It fires the starting gun on the negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, and it may prove a watershed moment for other matters too – NATO unity, Ukrainian sovereignty and Russia-US cooperation.
Ukraine seems to be the issue on which everything else hinges when it comes to Washington and Moscow resuming ties – unlock that and Trump seems to believe a relationship can blossom: “We each talked about the strengths of our respective nations, and the great benefit that we will someday have in working together”.
But at what cost? It’s a question Kyiv will be asking itself with trepidation.
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Donald Trump clearly wants to be remembered as the president who ended the war and healed the world, and it seems he’s even willing to travel to Moscow in order to make that happen.
For Bill Clinton and George W Bush it was a regular port of call, visiting five times and seven times respectively. Barack Obama came twice, but after his trip in 2013 for a G20 summit, the visits suddenly stopped. The reason – Russia annexed Crimea.
So given everything that’s happened since then, it would be quite the coup for the Kremlin if Donald Trump did visit.
Russia’s so-called special military operation wasn’t supposed to end in negotiations, but the leader of the free world flying into Moscow on a peace mission? You can see how Russia could spin that as a victory over the collective West.
But that’s not to say that a peace deal will be easy.
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There’s one line in the Kremlin’s read-out of the call that makes you wonder. It reads: “President Putin, for his part, mentioned the need to eliminate the root causes of the conflict”.
When Vladimir Putin talks about root causes, he means NATO expansion.
That’s what he claims is the reason for the war in Ukraine. And stating this in the call with Trump suggests his red lines haven’t shifted – no NATO membership for Ukraine, and that Kyiv must withdraw its troops from the four Ukrainian territories Russia currently occupies.
